Rabbitohs vs Dragons NRL R5 tips, odds & value bets – 9/4/2022

Two grand old rivals will face off on Saturday evening when the South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the St George Illawarra Dragons at Accor Stadium in round five. Both teams may sit with just one win so far in the 2022 NRL Premiership, but the Rabbitohs have shown improvement each week, while no one is quite sure what is happening with the Dragons.

Souths come in as a $1.33 favourite despite only earning two competition points from the first month of games. On paper they are a deserved short favourite, but the credits in the bank from strong 2020 and 2021 seasons is the only thing giving them that price. While they have improved every week, they’re hardly banging the door down. The most pleasing aspect of the first four weeks would have been the improvement shown by Lachlan Ilias at halfback, and while that’s a significant development, it shouldn’t be the best part of a four-week block for a team with premiership aspirations.

While backing the Bunnies as an out-and-out winner might be a little hard currently, Latrell Mitchell as a first tryscorer at $11 with Marantelli Bet is almost impossible to ignore. He has been the first tryscorer in three of his last four games against the Dragons, so the math is telling you it could be money well spent.

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The other interesting tryscorer is Alex Johnston. Yes, he scores for fun and he earns punters plenty of money, but he has scored a double in eight of the Bunnies’ last nine games where they’ve been the favourite with online bookmakers. The absurd 2021 rules might have contributed to that stat, but we say you should ride the wave until it loses momentum.

Dragons coach Anthony Griffin raised plenty of eyebrows when he moved Tyrell Sloan and Junior Amone out of the starting side an hour before kick-off against Parramatta. It forced Moses Mbye and Jack Bird to take their place in the starting side and it backfired, losing 48-14 to a red hot Parramatta side. Mbye was named to play hooker and Bird in the second row, so making a significant alteration to the spine was always fraught with danger.

The $3.75 price reflects the desperation that the Dragons and Anthony Griffin are feeling. Usually big changes to a play-making spine is a sign of a coach in search of absolutely anything to help get them a win, almost a last roll of the dice. The club knew they had young talent in key positions, but by Round 4 they’re making irrational decisions. It should fill punters with no confidence in the team for the foreseeable future.

Mikaele Ravalawa is a good value pick at $2.40 for an anytime tryscorer on the right wing, and he is almost a must-have in a multi. There isn’t much you can trust about the Dragons, but Ravalawa causing havoc down the flank is almost a given.

Rabbitohs vs Dragons betting predictions

South Sydney take another step after a tough month and win at the 13+ margin. Latrell Mitchell and Alex Johnston are going to score three tries between them and give the right edge of the Dragons all kinds of issues.

Rabbitohs vs Dragons same-game multi tips

Rabbitohs 13+ with Latrell Mitchell and Mikaele Ravalawa to score a try and Alex Johnston to get a double. Will anyone take the $19.26 on offer?

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