Port Adelaide v Hawthorn tips & odds | AFL Finals Week 2 preview

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn top betting picks

AFL Finals Week 2: Power v Hawks preview

Port Adelaide will need to dig deep when a fired-up Hawthorn outfit heads to South Australia this Friday night in the second week of the 2024 AFL Finals Series.

The Power will be looking to avoid another straight-sets exit after they fell to Geelong by 84 points at home last Thursday. Trailing by just 20 points at half-time, it was an embarrassing second-half performance as they conceded 11 goals while scoring just one.

The pressure is mounting on Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley, as they have now lost their past four finals — all played at Adelaide Oval. As a result, they are underdogs for this clash at $2.38 with Unibet.

One positive for the Power is that vice-captain Zak Butters has been cleared to play after being subbed out with a rib injury against the Cats. However, expect Hinkley to make some changes this week, with the likes of Todd Marshall, Josh Sinn and Dylan Williams in the mix. Veteran key forward Charlie Dixon is a likely omission after just three touches and no goals.

Hawthorn faired much differently last Friday night, beating the Western Bulldogs by 37 points at the MCG. Trailing by 12 points at quarter-time, the Hawks flicked the switch and kicked nine of the next 11 goals. Midfielder Jai Newcombe led the way with 35 disposals and a goal, while rookie forwards Nick Watson and Calsher Dear combined for seven majors.

Sam Mitchell’s upstarts have now won 12 of their last 14 matches, with an average winning margin of 65 points per game. Despite finishing in seventh and playing on the road, Hawthorn come in as $1.62 favourites with Bet365.

There will be at least one forced change for the Hawks, as key defender Sam Frost has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a foot injury. Jai Serong is the likely replacement, while Changkuoth Jiath is also in the mix to return. Will Day and Cam Mackenzie remain sidelined through injury.

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Port Adelaide v Hawthorn semi-final predictions

While history suggests that teams normally respond after losing a qualifying final, there are too many concerns around the Power. Their finals record is poor, while the Hawks are in red-hot form. Get on Hawthorn to book their place in the prelim, covering the line of -8.5 points at $1.91 with top AFL bookies.

One of the few positives for the Power last Thursday was the effort of midfielder Jason Horne-Francis. The 21-year-old has had an excellent month, booting seven goals across his last four matches. He kicked two majors when these sides last met, and at $2.35 with leading online bookmakers, there is decent value in backing Horne-Francis to slot two or more again.

Coming off a season-high 35 disposals against the Dogs, Hawthorn midfielder Jai Newcombe has now collected over 30 touches in four of his last five matches. Playing with in-form ruckman Lloyd Meek, the 23-year-old regularly gets first use of the footy. Newcombe attends more centre bounces than any other Hawk, so back him to continue his good form with 30 or more disposals at $2.50 with top Australian betting sites.

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