Port Adelaide v Essendon AFL tips, odds & value bets – 7/5/2023

The Port Adelaide Power will be looking to build on their four-game winning streak when they host Essendon this Sunday in an AFL matchup with significant ladder implications.

After a slow start to the season, Port have produced a month of stellar football with wins over the Swans, Bulldogs, Eagles, and Saints. They are the competition’s top-ranked side for tackles, and their work without the ball has proven key to their turnaround in form.

The Power produced 11 marks inside 50 and disposal efficiency of 70.2% to prevail over the Saints by seven points in a hard-fought contest. Veteran Travis Boak wound back the clock with a best-afield effort that helped lift his teammates over the line.

The Essendon Bombers will be keen to bounce back after a tough fortnight with losses to the high-flying Magpies and Cats. Essendon play a high-disposal brand of football that works well against lower-ranked sides but can come unstuck when facing high-pressure opponents.

The Essendon forward line remains a work in progress; however, they rank third for goal assists in the AFL this year, which suggests that improvement is being made. Sam Weideman looks especially promising up forward and booted 5.1 in the loss to the Cats.

Key matchup: Rozee v Merrett

Connor Rozee vs Zach Merrett

Port Adelaide midfielder Connor Rozee is enjoying a solid start to the season and was at his prolific best in his side’s win over West Coast in round six. He is averaging 23.4 disposals, 5.3 tackles, 2.7 clearances, and 97.6 AFL Fantasy points per game in 2023, which represents a big improvement on his overall career stats. The 23-year-old finds space and time amid the congestion and has a poise under pressure that has him earmarked as a future superstar of the competition.

Essendon captain Zach Merrett had a relatively quiet game against Geelong on his return from suspension, although his 19 touches included seven inside 50s. He is arguably the team’s most important player and averages 27.8 disposals, 5.2 tackles, and 4.0 clearances per game this season. Merrett’s tireless efforts around the stoppages were instrumental in Essendon’s upset win over the Demons in round five, and he is sure to be in the thick of the action in this game.

Power v Bombers AFL R10 betting strategy

Port Adelaide go into this contest as warm favourites based on their strong recent form and home ground advantage. The early line is set at 12.5 points, which seems fair given the Power rank eighth in the league for points scored, averaging just over 12 goals per game. This should be a close contest where scoring is hard work, so the unders on the total points line looks to be the play. While we expect Port to win, their short quote and the 12.5-point line are not enticing.

Port Adelaide v Essendon same game multi

For those chasing additional value, we suggest linking the under 173.5 points into Zach Merrett to get 25 or more disposals, into Sam Draper anytime goalkicker. This triple-header is paying $4.16 on BetOnline.

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