Port Adelaide v Carlton AFL tips & predictions | Round 12, 2024

Port Adelaide v Carlton best bets

Port Adelaide v Carlton R12 preview

Round 12 of the 2024 AFL Premiership season kicks off on Thursday night with a top-eight clash between Port Adelaide and Carlton at Adelaide Oval.

At home, the Power enter this match as favourites at $1.68 with Bet365, while leaving the Blues as slight outsiders at $2.25 with Unibet. The handicap is set at -6.5 points.

Last round, the Power continued their strong start to the season with a 59-point win over North Melbourne in Hobart. In a one-sided affair, Port Adelaide won every quarter and gained some valuable percentage. Jason Horne-Francis (24 disposals, one goal) and Ollie Wines (26 disposals, two goals) were standouts in the middle, while key forward Todd Marshall led the way with five goals.

Having won their last three matches, the Power now sit in third spot on the ladder. However, top AFL bookmakers are still paying as much as $2.75 for Port to make the top four.

Power captain Connor Rozee is in doubt for this weekend after he sprained his ankle against the Roos. Small forward Willie Rioli was also injured last Saturday and will miss with a calf strain, leaving Francis Evans as a likely replacement.

Key forward Charlie Dixon is in line to return after being rested against the Kangaroos, while ruckman Ivan Soldo is a chance after he returned through the SANFL last week.

The Blues secured an impressive win in round 11, beating the Gold Coast Suns by 29 points at Marvel Stadium. Despite never trailing, Michael Voss’ men struggled to shake the visitors before a five-goal burst at the start of the final term put the game away. Midfield pair Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh combined for 63 disposals, while Charlie Curnow and Zac Williams each kicked four goals.

Bouncing back from a crushing 52-point loss to the Sydney Swans in round 10, Carlton have now worked their way back into the top eight. Despite their inconsistencies to start the year, top online bookmakers have them as second favourites for the premiership at $7.50.

With an extensive injury list, the Blues will be happy they got through the match against the Suns unscathed. Many of their key players are still a few weeks away, but small forward Jesse Motlop returned through the VFL last Saturday and could be an option to replace the struggling Orazio Fantasia.

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Port Adelaide v Carlton betting strategy

Having never beaten the Power at Adelaide Oval, Carlton will need to make history in order to get the four points. Ken Hinkley’s men have looked vulnerable at times this season, yet they have found a way to get results, winning four of their five matches where the final margin has been 10 points or less. At home in a blockbuster Thursday night clash, back Port Adelaide to win by less than 40 points at $2.15 with leading AFL betting sites.

With doubts around the fitness of Connor Rozee, expect Power midfielder Jason Horne-Francis to have increased responsibility around the ball. Over the last three weeks, the former Kangaroo has attended more centre bounces while averaging 25.7 disposals per game. Fresh off a best-on-ground performance last Saturday, back Horne-Francis for 25 or more disposals at $2.15 with Bet365.

Having an excellent start to the season, Carlton captain Patrick Cripps has emerged as one of the favourites for the Brownlow Medal at $9.50 with AFL bookies. Averaging 27.6 disposals per game, the 29-year-old has collected over 30 disposals in three of his last six matches. He averages more touches against the Power than any other side, so back him for 30 or more disposals at $2.50 with the best Australian bookies.

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