Phoenix v Wildcats NBL play-in tips & best odds – Feb 9, 2023

The NBL finals series begins on Thursday evening with a winner-takes-all, must-win clash between the South East Melbourne Phoenix and Perth Wildcats at John Cain Arena. The loser will be eliminated and sent back to the drawing board for next season, while the winner will play the loser of the Taipans and JackJumpers on Sunday.

The Phoenix and Wildcats will have All-NBL First Team stars Mitch Creek and Bryce Cotton taking the floor, while Phoenix guard Ryan Broekhoff and Wildcats centre TaShawn Thomas are both racing the clock to prove their fitness for this match.

The Phoenix have won three of their last five matches against the Wildcats, including their emphatic 21-point win last time out against the Wildcats at the State Basketball Centre in Melbourne. These two sides could potentially be without Thomas and Broekhoff; however, the home-court advantage for the Phoenix, in combination with their well-balanced side, should see them winning at $1.50 with BetOnline.

The Phoenix have showed they are one of the most talented sides offensively in the NBL on their day. The potential loss of Broekhoff will be disruptive to the starting side; however, the loss of Thomas for the Wildcats will be of equal impact, and the Phoenix should exploit that as they again go on to record the highest-scoring quarter of the match ($1.58).

Must-win finals tend to bring out one of two responses in basketball. Either every shot for each side drops, or none do, making the match a defensive slog. With Cotton, Creek, Corey Brewster, Brady Manek and Alan Williams on the court, this match should be a more offensive affair. Look for both teams to click in attack as the points total goes above 187.5 ($1.90).

Key matchup: Mitch Creek v Bryce Cotton

Thursday night’s clash between these two clubs will likely boil down to whichever of these two All-NBL First Team stars stands tallest. They have shown this season they are elite scorers capable of winning a match for their club on their own, however, Thursday will be about leading under immense pressure. With starting teammates for each side battling fitness problems and unlikely to take part in the match, the spotlight will be on Creek and Cotton more so than normal. Whoever can lead their side better with a clear plan and better execution will advance to take on the winner of the Taipans and JackJumpers.

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