O’Malley v Dvalishvili tips, odds & predictions | UFC 306

UFC 306 at Sphere in Las Vegas this Sunday (AEST) features a compelling battle for the bantamweight belt between champion Sean O’Malley and challenger Merab Dvalishvili. Punters are torn by the contrasting styles of these elite MMA combatants, with leading online bookmakers posting pick’em odds in what promises to be a bout for the ages.

O’Malley vs Dvalishvili fight preview

Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili

Sean O’Malley (18-1-0) captured the UFC bantamweight belt in August 2023 with a devastating knockout win over Aljamain Sterling. The 29-year-old then defended the title in March 2024 with a dominant points win over Marlon Vera.

O’Malley is a tall and rangy combatant who times his strikes with precision and accuracy. He is not an active wrestler, but a reach advantage and swift footwork have kept the American safe from takedowns in most of his professional fights.

O’Malley boasts 12 knockout wins, and a solid gas tank allows for consistent output across a tough 25 minutes if needed — as demonstrated in the five-round win over Vera. He has talked of moving up a division in the future and is certainly packing more muscle these days.

Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0) has earned a title shot with 10 straight victories. The plucky 33-year-old has beaten three former UFC champions since 2022, downing Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo. Of note, the Georgian has just one stoppage win during his 10-fight unbeaten run, with the remainder of his victories coming via unanimous decisions.

Dvalishvili is a pressure fighter who constantly advances and looks to take opponents to the mat, where he can dominate proceedings. The win over Yan involved 49 takedown attempts — a UFC record.

Dvalishvili has a black belt in judo and fights out of the highly regarded Serra-Longo camp in Long Island, New York, alongside former bantamweight champ Sterling. His feats of cardio endurance during training camps are legendary. He will need to close the distance to work his wrestling game, which might pose a risk against an opponent with a razor-like jab.

O’Malley vs Dvalishvili picks & predictions

The betting lines for this fight are very tight. O’Malley opened as the slightest of favourites with the top UFC bookies, but his odds have gradually shortened as the fight approaches.

The challenger has never been knocked out, but he was rocked early against Cejudo and has never faced a striker of O’Malley’s talent. The champion has never been dominated on the ground, although he’s never faced the non-stop wrestling attack of someone like Dvalishvili.

The range will determine the outcome, and O’Malley will enjoy a four-inch reach and five-inch height advantage. We are sticking with the champion to land cleanly and test the chin of the challenger from the outset.

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