NRL Raiders v Dragons Rd 22 best bets & odds – August 14, 2022

Sunday afternoon football begins in the nation’s capital in Round 22 as the Raiders host the Dragons at GIO Stadium.

This match will be a must-win for both sides as they sit within striking distance of the eighth spot on the NRL ladder. To be any chance of playing in the finals, the Dragons and Raiders respectively will need others results to go in their favour. But winning as may games as possible to give them the best chance of making the top eight starts this Sunday.

To thicken the plot for the Raiders, coach Ricky Stuart has been banned by the NRL from all coaching duties due to his post-match comments following the Raiders’ loss to the Panthers last weekend. Will the Raiders be able to overcome this adversity to build towards the finals, or will the Dragons stop them in their tracks?

Not only will Stuart be missing on game day for the Raiders, but winger Nick Cotric will be out through suspension and Joseph Tapine will also be missing through injury. A reshuffled backline sees Xavier Savage return to fullback, Albert Hopoate come onto one wing and Jordan Rapana shift back to the other. Emre Guler is the man who’s been tasked to replace Tapine, and Corey Horsburgh comes onto the bench to fill that space.

For the Dragons, Tariq Sims has been replaced by Josh McGuire as a result of suspension, with Michael Molo shifting into the starting side to replace brother Francis.

In 35 matches since 1998, these two clubs have shared one draw, but the Raiders have been victorious on 21 occasions. Alarmingly for the Dragons, they have played 17 games in Canberra and only mustered four wins. Sunday’s task will be no easier as the Dragons have the metaphorical bunny to chase that is the NRL finals, with the added incentive of winning for their absent coach. The Dragons are by no means a bad side, but the Raiders look to have far more ability to score points and should secure the win by 13+ points at the $2.75 price.

Hudson Young has been one man for the Raiders to step up in the back end of the regular season to help lead his side to the finals series. Against lower-ranked sides such as the Dragons, Young has made sure to stamp his authority on the game with his line breaking and tryscoring ability. He has three tries in the last six weeks to go with three line breaks and 16 tackle breaks. Young will be going at his opposite number Jaydn Su’a all afternoon, who has himself missed 23 missed tackles in his last seven games. At $3.60 with Marantelli Bet, Young is an incredible value play to score at any time.

More alarmingly for the Dragons, they have a horrible tendency to concede more tries right under the goal posts that anywhere else on the field. One man who will be looking to exploit that defensive deficiency is Tom Starling. One of the smaller and much quicker hookers in the NRL, he has an ability to sense weakness in the oppositions defensive line and take full advantage with his running game. Look for Starling to come off the bench and make an impact by scoring a try at any point during the match, paying $5.40.

By law of averages, both sides are as capable of scoring points as they are conceding them. However, with wet and rainy conditions predicted in the nation’s capital, scoring points will be much harder to do. Look for this match to fall below 43.5 total points for the game at $1.90.

Key matchup: Adam Elliot vs Jack de Belin

This shapes to be an 80-minute battle as these two work horses face off. Although starting in the front row, expect to see Jack de Belin play a more traditional lock roll to link both sides of the field. Elliot plays a much similar role for the Raiders, and he has mastered the art of when to play ball and when to ‘come off the back fence’ at his opposition. De Belin is no stranger to this either and the two should meet multiple times in the middle in contact. The winner of this battle will gel the centre third of the field on both sides of the ball, doing the hard work that makes the ball players around them play with more freedom to create for the outside backs.

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