NRL Grand Final 2023: Panthers v Broncos betting tips & preview

Penrith v Brisbane NRL Grand Final best bets

Panthers v Broncos match preview – NRL Grand Final 2023

The National Rugby League season comes to a close this Sunday as the Penrith Panthers and the Brisbane Broncos face off in the 2023 NRL Grand Final at Sydney’s Accor Stadium.

The Panthers find themselves in a fourth-straight decider as they push to become only the second team in history to win three premierships in a row. They were comprehensive in their 38-4 win over the Melbourne Storm last week, putting on 34 unanswered points, and it is no wonder they come in as favourites.

With a completion rate of 87% in their prelim and only 29 missed tackles to Melbourne’s 50, the Panthers are playing an extremely polished brand of rugby league where they rarely allow the opposition opportunities to score. Penrith have conceded the least amount of points through the home-and-away season and just two tries in this finals series so far, so the pressure will be on the Broncos to find ways to get on the scoreboard.

The Penrith Panthers have also been impressive on the offensive end, with 70 points in their two finals matches. Slight concerns may arise regarding the lack of diversity in their scoring options, with only five different tryscorers so far in the finals, but that also shows the form of the likes of Brian To’o, Nathan Cleary and Sunia Turuva entering this match.

While the Panthers have dominated the big stage in recent years, this is the first grand final for the Brisbane Broncos since their heartbreaking loss to the North Queensland Cowboys in 2015. With the second-best offence and defence in the NRL in 2023, the Broncos have the tools to break down the Panthers in a variety of ways.

Like Penrith, the Broncos were dominant winners in the preliminary finals, beating the New Zealand Warriors 42-12 in a high-scoring affair. The Warriors tried to turn the game into a shootout, but Brisbane showed their class in the end with three unanswered tries in the second half.

Known for their free-flowing offensive play, the Broncos had 23 offloads and 11 line breaks against the Warriors, although there are concerns regarding their ball security. However, with a powerful forward pack featuring representative players such as Payne Haas, Pat Carrigan, Kurt Capewell and Thomas Flegler, the Broncos have the ability to grind down the Panthers through the middle.

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Penrith v Brisbane betting predictions – 2023 NRL Grand Final

As the clear two best teams in the NRL in 2023, we are expecting a high-quality showcase of rugby league on Sunday night. With so much finals experience in their side, it is hard to side against the Panthers as they look to complete a landmark hat-trick. They show great value in the head-to-head market at -161.29 with Bet365, but the confident bettor can back the Panthers at the line of -3.5 at -111.11.

In his last match for the Panthers before moving to the Canterbury Bulldogs in 2024, Stephen Crichton will be looking to put in one last big-game display. With 15 tries in 2023, Crichton in this finals series despite two try assists. Having scored in all three of the Panthers’ previous grand finals, expect Crichton to get on the scoreboard once again at +140 with top NRL bookmakers.

Despite both sides keeping their opposition to low scores across the last few weeks, they have also shown an ability to score themselves, each going over the total points line in four of their last five matches. The obvious creativity of each backline suggests that there will be plenty of opportunities, as each side excels in both offloads and line breaks. As such, we are backing this match to go over 39.5 total match points.

After scoring the first try in each of his last two matches, and with six tries in his last three, Brian To’o looks set to carry his super form into the big dance. He scored twice in last year’s decider, and we are backing him to make an early impact again as the first tryscorer at +700 with Palmerbet.

NRL Grand Final key matchup: Edwards v Walsh

Dylan Edwards vs Reece Walsh

Panthers fullback Dylan Edwards will be looking to replicate the performance that won him the 2022 Clive Churchill Medal. He is an extremely reliable player who rarely makes mistakes and also takes some tough carries through the middle of the field. Always involved, Edwards has the ability to change the momentum with a big play on both offence and defence.

The centre of everything for the Broncos, Reece Walsh has a genuine X-factor and can change the game in a moment. With three tries and seven assists across the last four weeks, the Queensland No.1 is in career-best form. At just 21 years old, the question still remains as to whether he will rise to the occasion or falter under pressure.

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