NRL Finals 2020 Week 3 matchups, betting odds & team news

We love the NRL finals at the best of times, but 2020 has produced some out-of-the-box moments and minute-to-minute drama. There is also some fun to be had in a few NRL betting markets, so let’s take a look through the guide and see where there is a chance to turn a profit in the preliminary finals.

With the Melbourne Storm at $1.50 in the head-to-head market, punters are firmly in their corner and believe the Suncorp Stadium factor outweighs Canberra’s recent record in this matchup.

It can be the only explanation, as the form of both teams over the last 10 games is almost identical.

Canberra have averaged 27 points per game, whereas Melbourne have gone at 28 per game. The Storm have conceded 16 per game, while the Raiders have let in 17 per game.

They’ve also both averaged 45 total match points in that period, so there is barely a whisker between them.

The Canberra Raiders have lost by 13 or more points only twice this season, so the $2.88 for Storm 1-12 looks the smart money if you fancy Melbourne.

Melbourne have also only lost twice by 13 or more, and one of those occasions was in Victoria against the Green Machine, but the $7.50 for Canberra to repeat that effort in Brisbane feels more like fantasy than reality.

The $4 for the Raiders at the 1-12 margin is terrific value. Despite the Storm’s awesome record in Brisbane, there is every chance Canberra can get the upset.

Even taking the +6 handicap for Canberra makes sense, as the margin was six points the last time these two played back in round nine.

Anytime tryscoring multis have been a huge hit in 2020, and the $9 for Jack Wighton, Josh Addo-Carr and Ryan Papenhuyzen to cross at any time is a good price.

Nick Cotric is the favourite for Canberra to score first at $13, and for a winger you’d take that price every day of the week.

The over/under of 43.5 sits close to the 45 point/10 game average mentioned earlier, and a warm Brisbane evening should see the points flow.

In a remarkable coincidence, the head-to-head prices for this game are identical to those of the opening fixture.

The over/under is 44.5 points, and that looks in danger given these teams have a combined total points average of around 47 per game over the last 10 weeks.

The Penrith Panthers have plenty of strike across the park, but their calling card has been a defence that conceded just 11.9 points per game in the regular season.

Conditions promise to be a little slippery on Saturday evening, which gives the slight edge to the better defence – especially when you consider how good both teams’ kicking games are.

One important stat when it comes to Penrith is their perfect record when leading at half time. It sounds obvious for a team who only lost one game all season, but their 100% record compared to Souths’ 28.6% win rate sticks out like a sore thumb.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs have started slow in both of their finals games before storming home and winning comfortably.

If they allow Penrith to build a lead, they can kiss the premiership goodbye.

It’s one thing to allow 14-0 head starts and 10-point half-time deficits to Newcastle and Parramatta, but that won’t fly against the minor premiers.

The Penrith/Penrith half-time/full-time double looks a good shout. The Panthers have an 8-3 record as the home team in this market in 2020, while $1.83 on offer is much better than the head-to-head price.

Both Brian To’o and Brent Naden have been first tryscorer on three occasions in 2020, and you can get $9.50 for To’o and a fantastic $15 for Naden.