NRL Cowboys v Dragons tips, odds & value bets – Round 11, 2023

Round 11 of the NRL Premiership continues in Townsville on Saturday night with the North Queensland Cowboys hosting the St George Illawarra Dragons at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. Both teams have named unchanged line-ups from Magic Round, where the Cowboys smashed the Roosters and the Dragons went down to the Tigers in a close one.

The last time these two sides met, the Cowboys were flying high heading towards the NRL finals while the Dragons were battling for their chance to play in September. These two sides have met 37 times for 20 wins by the Cowboys, including the last three by 98 points to 46.

The Cowboys’ win over the Roosters in round 10 should give them the confidence to begin rebuilding their season, while the Dragons appear to be in steep decline. The hosts should go on to win this match and cover the -6.5 line at $1.96 odds with BetOnline.

Despite the Cowboys’ struggles this season, Valentine Holmes has shown why he is a star of the NRL and a walk-up start for the Queensland Maroons in the State of Origin series. Not only does he get involved in the hard work taking tough carries from his end, he also heads the spear of his side’s attack at left centre.

Moses Suli will be marking Holmes, and he could be down on confidence following the finish to the game in St George Illawarra’s loss to the Tigers last week. Holmes will attack the slightest sense of weakness and should score a try at some stage in the match ($2.40).

Scott Drinkwater has had a slow start to the season form-wise while also being disrupted by suspension. In the last fortnight the Cowboys fullback has begun to increase his impact on games, boosting most stat lines while touching the ball less. Taking on a weakened Dragons side this Saturday could be the type of match Drinkwater needs to return to full confidence, and he looks a solid play in the anytime tryscorer market ($2.55).

Hot, dry conditions are predicted for Townsville on Saturday evening, which will play right into the Cowboys’ hands. The weather should allow them to play a strong, fast brand of football through the middle of the field that will allow their playmakers and outside backs more time and space to put points on the board. The Dragons can score themselves, but the Cowboys could put more than 40.5 points ($1.90) on the scoreboard for the match on their own.

Key matchup: Townsend v Hunt

Chad Townsend vs Ben Hunt

The battle of the captain halfbacks in this match will be one for the old-school rugby league fan. Game management and kicking will be the most important factors here. Chad Townsend has boosted his numbers recently in terms of kicking and defence, making life for his teammates easier. Ben Hunt will be determined to make his milestone match one to remember, and whoever plays better in their respective No.7 jersey will lead their team to a win.

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