North Melbourne v St Kilda AFL betting tips – Round 8, 2023

The final game of round eight in the 2023 AFL Premiership sees third-placed St Kilda take on a struggling North Melbourne side, with both teams seeking a win following losses last weekend.

Following their 2-0 start to the season, the Kangaroos’ form since has been nothing short of disappointing and last weekend against the Demons was their worst performance yet. An eight-goal-to-one first quarter set the tone for the evening as North Melbourne proceeded to lose every quarter, allowing Melbourne’s players to have a field day in front of goal.

After finishing last in the previous two seasons, there were expectations that North Melbourne would finally begin to show some improvement in 2023. The appointment of Alastair Clarkson along with the added development of players were key drivers of this optimism, and there were promising signs early with wins over West Coast and Fremantle in the first two rounds.

However, since then it has been more of what we have come to expect from the Kangaroos. Having lost their last five games, North have scored the second-least points in the competition while also conceding the second-most. Something has to change, and after losing by 90 points on the weekend, surely things can only go up.

Last Friday night, the Saints lost in heartbreaking fashion to Port Adelaide by seven points in a thrilling contest. A game where they lead by over four goals at one point, St Kilda will feel as though this was a game they let slip away. Despite being the best defensive team in the competition, their scoring ability has been questionable, shown in this match as they conceded their highest score of the season (83) and were unable to match it.

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Following the retirement of Paddy Ryder last season, there were doubts over the ability of Rowan Marshall to continue to perform at a high level in a single-ruck system. However, his form this year has put these doubts to bed. Had the Saints won last weekend, Marshall’s game would’ve been widely praised as best-on-ground as he had 26 disposals, 28 hitouts and 10 tackles in an almighty performance.

In an undermanned forward-line for St Kilda, there has been a need for goals to come from a variety of avenues. Someone who has excelled in that department this season is mid-sized forward Michito Owens. The second-year player has jumped into Rising Star contention as he averages 17 disposals an 1.7 goals a game, often producing goals out of nowhere at critical points. He has kicked two goals in three out of the last four weeks, and against a leaky North Melbourne defence, expect this form to continue with two or more goals ($1.55).

Coming back from injury in round six, Jack Steele had a quiet outing, but against the Power last Friday he was back to the best we are so used to seeing. One of the best two-way running midfielders in the competition, he had 28 disposal, 11 tackles and a goal, and led by example in a game where he needed to stand up. He has collected 25 or more disposals in three out of his four games this year, and this should happen again this weekend ($1.50).

The Saints should win comfortably on Sunday against the out-of-form Kangaroos, but there is no value in the $1.13 head-to-head quote. Instead, look towards the under 164.5 at $1.88 with BetOnline. The top defence coming up against the second-worst offence leans towards a low score for the Kangaroos, while the Saints have only kicked over 100 points once this season.

Key matchup: Sheezel v Sinclair

Harry Sheezel vs Jack Sinclair

Since round one, Harry Sheezel has transitioned into the AFL almost as well as any rookie has in their first seven games. Following five games of being able to roam free and collect the footy as he liked, he finally faced his first major challenge as he was successfully tagged by the Suns, being held to only 11 disposals. However, last week he bounced back, once again gathering 30 disposals as one of the sole positives on a miserable evening for the Roos.

A good St Kilda team is functioning at its best when Jack Sinclair is fit and firing. The 2022 All-Australian has carried his form along this season, gathering more than 25 disposals each week while being one of the Saints’ most trusted ball-users by foot. If St Kilda can get Sinclair on the move, delivering the ball inside 50, it could be a great afternoon for the Saints forwards.

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