North Melbourne v Carlton AFL R4 best bets – Good Friday 2023

The rolling carousel of AFL teams that get to beat North Melbourne on Good Friday continues this week as the Roos play host to Carlton at Marvel Stadium. North Melbourne come into this match having dropped a chance to go 3-0 against Hawthorn, while Carlton managed to keep their unbeaten streak alive with a scrappy win over the Giants.

Carlton should come to Marvel full of confidence after last week. They outlasted the Giants, who were fighting hard to claim victory, when last year they would have dropped the game. The Blues are living up to the critics’ expectations of them, when most pundits tipped them to rise into top-eight calculations.

It would seem early on that the Blues have become a stronger force in Michael Voss’ second year at the helm. There is still a bit of tweaking required before they become a real threat to the competition, such as their forward 50 entries given the midfield dominance, and their disposal efficiency around the ground.

Nevertheless, the Blues haven’t been fully beaten this year, and all signs point to victory this Friday. If their midfield dominance this early in the season is an indicator for how this game will go, then expect Carlton to see plenty of action in their forward half. Boasting two of the best key forwards in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, the Blues should stack on plenty of scoreboard pressure, especially given the Roos’ small backline.

The Roos will be sweating on Griffin Logue’s hearing at the tribunal, as a failure to clear him will leave them even shorter in defence. If Logue is to not gain a successful appeal, then expect Carlton to dominate inside their forward 50, justifying their favourite price of $1.27 at Marantelli Bet.

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What a start it has been for Alastair Clarkson’s tenure as North Melbourne coach. Last year they were barely able to scrape together two wins, but now we are three rounds into season 2023, and the Roos are already 2-1 – and they blew a big opportunity to make it 3-0. Clarkson has this team moving in the right direction, and it’s excellent to see.

But the young team still relies too much on too few, as was the case last week. North Melbourne have an impressive midfield that can dominate the clearances at will, but last week they were missing two of their key players: Jy Simpkin (suspension), and the late out Luke Davies-Uniacke (calf). This resulted in a very young midfield brigade that just couldn’t match it with the Hawks, and like that, the Roos’ biggest strength was gone.

This week, however, the Roos will get those two stars back, and their midfield balance will be restored. Expect first-year captain Simpkin to play a big game; he will feel as though he owes his teammates for last week and should go off for 25+ disposals ($1.44).

Outside of a wild performance from Geelong’s Jeremy Cameron in round two, Carlton’s defence has been well and truly suffocating. Lewis Young and Jacob Weitering have been out-marking their key position opponents, while the run-and-gun tandem of Adam Saad and Lachie Cowan has been propelling them forward. So where will North Melbourne’s goals come from?

Nick Larkey, the current goalkicking leader, will receive plenty of attention this week, so another will have to stand up. That player could be the Roos’ heart and soul, Ben Cunnington. The veteran midfielder was trialled as a resting forward throughout the pre-season, which he excelled at. With the return of the other key mids, Cunnington should find more time forward and, with attention paid mostly to others, should also find the goals at least once ($1.96).

Key matchup: Davies-Uniacke v Cripps

Luke Davies-Uniacke vs Patrick Cripps

The man affectionately known as ‘LDU’ has arguably been the best player in the competition over the first few rounds of the season. He possesses strength and explosive ability that rivals Chris Judd, and so far this year he has shown that not many can match him in the contest.

One player that can is Patrick Cripps. The Carlton skipper was astonishing last week, racking up 42 disposals and 13 clearances in a best-on-ground performance. When he is at his best, Carlton look virtually unbeatable.

So it’s no surprise that these two players who play the same position, have the same physical strengths, and generate the same impact on their team will go head-to-head on Friday night. Davies-Uniacke will have fresher legs, having taken the week off to nurse a corked calf. But will that give him the edge against Cripps, and thus the edge for his team? Time will tell, and this Good Friday’s game is sure to be a cracker.

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