New Zealand v South Africa Rugby Championship tips & predictions

New Zealand v South Africa Round 3 best bets

New Zealand v South Africa Round 3 preview

Eden Park hosts the heavyweight showdown of Round 3 in the 2025 Rugby Championship, with the All Blacks and Springboks tied on one win apiece and everything to play for in Auckland on Saturday evening.

Rugby betting sites have New Zealand as clear favourites, with their Eden Park fortress unbeaten since 1994. Scott Robertson’s side will be eager to respond after the Buenos Aires slip, lifted by Ardie Savea’s 100th Test and a reshuffled lineup.

The All Blacks have shuffled their deck, with Finlay Christie taking over at scrum-half to speed up the tempo. Beauden Barrett runs the attack at fly-half with Jordie Barrett and Billy Proctor combining in midfield, while Will Jordan and Emoni Narawa bring finishing power out wide.

Up front, captain Scott Barrett leads a pack anchored by Ethan de Groot and Wallace Sititi, with Tupou Vaa’i back at lock and Simon Parker adding extra line-speed on the flank. The bench is stacked with game-changers, with Tyrel Lomax, Du’Plessis Kirifi and Damian McKenzie set to inject energy late.

Rassie Erasmus counters with continuity and clout. Eben Etzebeth returns to partner Ruan Nortje, Siya Kolisi shifts to No.8 alongside Pieter-Steph du Toit and Marco van Staden, while Handré Pollard and Willie le Roux bring more than 900 Test points and vast control to the backline. Jesse Kriel retains the armband and combines again with Damian de Allende in a battle-hardened midfield, with strike threats Cheslin Kolbe and Canan Moodie ready to pounce off turnover ball.

Recent history points to tight margins. Still, New Zealand’s Eden Park aura plus a sharper kicking and exit game and Christie’s service should tilt the arm-wrestle their way.

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New Zealand v South Africa Round 3 team lineups

New Zealand starting XV

15 Will Jordan
14 Emoni Narawa
13 Billy Proctor
12 Jordie Barrett
11 Rieko Ioane
10 Beauden Barrett
9 Finlay Christie
8 Wallace Sititi
7 Ardie Savea
6 Simon Parker
5 Tupou Vaa’i
4 Scott Barrett (C)
3 Fletcher Newell
2 Codie Taylor
1 Ethan de Groot

Bench: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Tyrel Lomax, Fabian Holland, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Kyle Preston*, Quinn Tupaea, Damian McKenzie

South Africa starting XV

15 Willie le Roux
14 Cheslin Kolbe
13 Jesse Kriel (C)
12 Damian de Allende
11 Canan Moodie
10 Handré Pollard
9 Grant Williams
8 Siya Kolisi
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
6 Marco van Staden
5 Ruan Nortje
4 Eben Etzebeth
3 Thomas du Toit
2 Malcolm Marx
1 Ox Nche

Bench: Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Boan Venter, Wilco Louw, Lood de Jager, Kwagga Smith, Cobus Reinach, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Ethan Hooker

New Zealand v South Africa betting predictions

Eden Park’s mystique, Christie’s tempo, and the strike power of Jordan and Narawa point to a narrow All Blacks success in a territory-driven Test. With nine of the last 14 clashes decided by ≤6 and the Boks’ defence elite, the value sits in New Zealand winning by 1-12 points at $2.70 with the top online bookmakers.

The Springboks have held New Zealand to one try or fewer in three of the last four meetings, and both sides boast elite exit and kicking games. With high set-piece focus and disciplined structures, a trench fight that ends up under 50 points looks like the smarter totals play at $1.90 with BetOnline.

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