New Zealand v South Africa betting tips | Rugby Championship 2025

New Zealand v South Africa Round 4 best bets

New Zealand v South Africa Round 4 preview

The Freedom Cup will be on the line when the All Blacks and Springboks face off in Wellington on Saturday, September 13, with the action set to start at 5:05pm AEST.

With both sides still chasing the Rugby Championship title, this shapes up as another high-intensity battle, with the top online bookmakers marking the hosts as $1.50 favourites.

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New Zealand extended their remarkable Eden Park streak last weekend with a 24-17 win, but Sky Stadium hasn’t always been as kind. South Africa drew 16-16 here in 2019 and won 36-34 in 2018, so the world champions know they can deliver in the Kiwi capital.

Scott Robertson has made minimal changes for the rematch but has handed sevens flyer Leroy Carter his first Test start on the left wing. Noah Hotham returns at scrum-half, Damian McKenzie shifts to fullback and Beauden Barrett continues at fly-half.

South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus has gone bold with seven changes to his starting side after the Eden Park loss. Ethan Hooker debuts on the wing, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu runs the show at fly-half, and Jasper Wiese is back at No.8 with Siya Kolisi moving to blindside flanker. Lood de Jager partners Ruan Nortje in a reshaped second row.

New Zealand v South Africa Round 4 team lineups

New Zealand starting XV

15 Damian McKenzie
14 Will Jordan
13 Billy Proctor
12 Jordie Barrett
11 Leroy Carter
10 Beauden Barrett
9 Noah Hotham
8 Wallace Sititi
7 Ardie Savea
6 Simon Parker
5 Tupou Vaa’i
4 Scott Barrett (c)
3 Tyrel Lomax
2 Samisoni Taukei’aho
1 Ethan de Groot

Bench: Brodie McAlister, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Fabian Holland, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Finlay Christie, Quinn Tupaea, Ruben Love

South Africa starting XV

15 Aphelele Fassi
14 Cheslin Kolbe
13 Canan Moodie
12 Damian Willemse
11 Ethan Hooker
10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu
9 Cobus Reinach
8 Jasper Wiese
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
6 Siya Kolisi (c)
5 Ruan Nortje
4 Lood de Jager
3 Thomas du Toit
2 Malcolm Marx
1 Ox Nche

Bench: Marnus van der Merwe, Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Wilco Louw, RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith, Grant Williams, Manie Libbok, Andre Esterhuizen

All Blacks v Springboks betting predictions

New Zealand’s settled core in key positions gives them a clear platform to dictate terms from the outset. South Africa’s experimental backline may take time to gel, which could allow the All Blacks to build scoreboard pressure early. If the hosts reproduce their sharp start from Eden Park, they’re well placed to clear the -5.5 line at $1.90 with top rugby betting sites.

Making his Test debut, sevens star Leroy Carter brings blistering speed and proven scoring ability to the All Blacks’ left edge. With Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie likely to stretch the Springboks’ reshuffled defence, Carter should get plenty of opportunities in space. At $2.10 with BetOnline, he shapes as a smart play to mark his first Test with a try.

South Africa’s attacking selections and New Zealand’s strike power point to an open game. On a quick Sky Stadium surface with dry conditions forecast, this shapes up as a fast-paced contest. The over 48.5 points at $1.90 with BetOnline offers appealing value for fans expecting end-to-end rugby.

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