Melbourne vs Sydney AFL Rd 12 betting tips & odds – June 6, 2022

Can the Demons bounce back to winning form in round 12 when they face the never-say-die Swans at the MCG this Saturday night?

In the light of recent results and ladder positions, this game takes on huge premiership significance and should be an early taste of finals footy. The mighty Melbourne Demons were humbled in round 11 after building up a 30-point buffer midway through the second quarter. We have previously referenced Melbourne’s apparent mid-game laziness, and they may have switched off a little early against the Dockers.

Melbourne have hopefully learned that while inferior opposition can be dispatched with a single-quarter flurry, top sides must be battled right until the final whistle and any lapses will be punished. The Demons kicked a single goal in the third quarter, and an embarrassing 0.4 in the fourth, thus waving goodbye to their dreams of an undefeated season.

For their obvious deficiencies, the Sydney Swans possess a never-say-die attitude that no other team can match. Sydney looked dead and buried against the surging Tigers in round 11 but found a way to win in an absolute cliff-hanger, thanks to some late Buddy Franklin heroics.

The Swans will fancy their chances to catch the reigning premiers on a mini-slump here, and we may be presented with a close encounter. Champion teams normally bounce back, but Sydney are a pressure side that can force mistakes through sheer relentless harassment, which might be enough to spoil the Melbourne party.

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Key matchup: Clayton Oliver vs Luke Parker

Melbourne midfielder Clayton Oliver is having a barn-burning season. He averages 34 disposals per game, eight clearances, and is a huge cog in the Melbourne machine. Watching him swoop like a vulture on any loose ball, especially after a whistle when the opportunity to take the advantage is still alive, is a joy to behold. The only way to stop Oliver seems to be to win the ball first.

If the Swans are to be competitive here, they will need to break even at the stoppages. Luke Parker can be hot and cold at times but has the temperament of a big-game player. In what will be tough conditions against the best midfield in the AFL, the Swans will need Parker to impose his presence in the centre. Oliver versus Parker is our key match-up for this blockbuster.

Melbourne vs Sydney betting strategy

The online bookies seem unperturbed by the Melbourne defeat and have installed the Demons as short-priced favourites. The line has been set at a tempting 23.5 points, with total points at 154.5. This game will be a chess match between the respective coaching teams, and strategy may well determine the outcome. We are going with the unders on the total points line here. With a ‘polar vortex’ sweeping Victoria, this looks to be a low-scoring affair. Buddy misses through suspension, and Melbourne scored a paltry 56 points in round 11, so the unders on the total points line is the official tip.

Melbourne vs Sydney AFL same-game multi tips

As part of our eternal search for value, we will link total points under 154.5, into Luke Parker 25+ disposals, into Angus Brayshaw 25+ disposals. This combo will return a healthy $4.96 courtesy of Ladbrokes. This game may be a harbinger of finals to come, so tune in and watch two of the best sides battle it out for mid-season dominance.

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