Melbourne vs Essendon AFL betting tips & predictions | Round 5

Melbourne v Essendon best bets

Melbourne Demons v Essendon Bombers Round 5 preview

The Melbourne Demons will be desperate to get their season on track when they face Essendon on Saturday night at Adelaide Oval.

Melbourne are one of three teams yet to register a win in 2025, sitting 0–4 heading into Round 5. Their forward line is under pressure to perform, with Bayley Fritsch and Jacob van Rooyen combining for just 1.3 in last week’s 39-point loss to Geelong.

Essendon, on the other hand, return fresh from the bye and carry some momentum after a big win over Port Adelaide in Round 3. With a well-rested squad and a dynamic midfield-forward connection, the Bombers will be keen to impress.

Top AFL betting sites have Essendon as narrow favourites, but given Melbourne’s current form, the Dons appear well positioned to dominate this contest.

Demons v Bombers R5 team news

The Demons have been dealt a major blow with star defender Jake Lever ruled out for up to eight weeks following ankle surgery on an injury sustained in Round 2 against North Melbourne.

Lever was initially expected to return this weekend, but the club made the executive decision for him to undergo surgery instead.

Recommended!

Fast Payouts

50% matched deposit up to USD $5,000

Visit BetOnline

Essendon are set to regain a host of key players, with Peter Wright, Darcy Parish, and Archie Perkins all listed as tests and in contention for selection. Meanwhile, Nik Cox remains at least a week away as he continues to recover from concussion.

Parish would be a huge inclusion for the Bombers, who will be looking to take control in the midfield against a Melbourne side that has been uncharacteristically sloppy through the engine room this season.

Melbourne v Essendon predictions

Essendon skipper Zach Merrett is a reliable ball-winner and has collected 30 or more disposals in three of his last five games. He also averages 30.4 disposals across his last five against Melbourne, and $2.50 at Picklebet is great value for the Merrett to hit that mark once more.

On the other side, Clayton Oliver loves playing Essendon. He’s racked up 35 or more twice in his last five against them, including monster hauls of 41 and 38 disposals. Back Oliver at $4 with online bookmakers to pass 35 touches again.

If you’re looking for value up forward, Essendon’s Nic Martin has quietly become a consistent threat. He’s kicked multiple goals in three of his last four and averages two goals per game in his last three against the Demons, so Martin is a handy play to hit the scoreboard at $3.05 with Neds.

Sports betting tips