Melbourne v St Kilda R11 betting tips & predictions | AFL 2024

Demons v Saints best bets

Melbourne v St Kilda preview

Both the Melbourne Demons and St Kilda Saints will be looking to break runs of consecutive losses when they face off at the MCG this Sunday in round 11 of the 2024 AFL Premiership season.

At home, the Demons enter this match as comfortable favourites at $1.36 with Unibet, leaving the Saints at $3.25 with BoomBet. The handicap is set at 17.5 points.

Last Sunday, Melbourne suffered their most disappointing loss of the season as they went down to the West Coast Eagles by 35 points. Despite never leading, the Demons kept it close for three quarters before the Eagles ran away with it in the final term.

Having missed a great chance to jump into the top four, the Demons now sit in seventh place, level on points with five other sides. As a result of their recent slump, top AFL bookmakers have pushed them out to $2.50 to finish inside the top four.

Adding to the disappointment, the Demons have lost star defender Jake Lever to a knee injury. Expect Adam Tomlinson to cover in the backline, while wingman Ed Langdon returns and key forward Jacob van Rooyen replaces the omitted Ben Brown.

The Saints continued their struggles last Saturday, going down to Fremantle by 17 points at Marvel Stadium. The scores were level at three-quarter-time, but the Saints were unable to close out the game, conceding 3.7 in the final term.

With just one win from their past six matches, the pressure is on Ross Lyon and the Saints to improve from 14th place on the ladder. At $11 to make the top eight, they would need a miracle to make finals from here.

There will be at least three changes for the Saints as Liam Stocker, Ryan Byrnes and Jack Higgins all return to the side. Mattaes Phillipou is a confirmed omission, while Lance Collard and Zak Jones are at risk after quiet games against the Dockers.

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Melbourne v St Kilda predictions

While the Saints have the fifth-best defence in the AFL this season, their inability to kick a winning score has stopped any success. Averaging 55 points per game over the last two weeks, it is hard to see them challenging the Demons. At the MCG with a potential top-four spot on the line, back the home side to win by less than 40 points at $2 with online bookmakers.

Averaging over a goal per game this season, Melbourne midfielder Christian Petracca is always a threat when he roams forward. He has at least two scoring shots in all but one game this season, and he almost carried the Demons over the line himself with five goals against the Blues in round nine. With 11 goals in his past five matches against the Saints, back Petracca for two or more goals at $2.25 odds.

Averaging 29.3 disposals per game over his last three matches, St Kilda half-back Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has been in great touch. He is sought out by teammates for his speed and decision-making, while the addition of some free touches from kick-ins adds to his disposal count. He collected 33 disposals against the Demons last time they played, so back him in for 30 or more touches at $2.45 with Neds.

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