Melbourne v Brisbane AFL R18 tips & top odds – July 14, 2023

Demons v Lions AFL R18 best bets

Melbourne v Brisbane AFL match preview

This Friday night, the Melbourne Demons host the Brisbane Lions at the MCG in a game that will have major implications on the ladder at the end of the AFL season.

The Demons faced the St Kilda Saints last weekend, winning by 21 points. After the Saints lost three players due to injury in the first quarter, the Demons were able to hold a steady lead from quarter time. In a solid team display, the performance of star midfielder Christian Petracca, with 20 disposals and four goals, was particularly impressive.

The Brisbane Lions hosted the last-placed West Coast Eagles last weekend, winning by 81 points. Led by a six-goal effort from veteran forward Jack Gunston, the Lions were a class above all day, with only their accuracy preventing them from kicking an even bigger score.

The outcome of this game could trigger an eight-point swing on the AFL ladder. For the fourth-placed Demons, a win this weekend puts them within a game of the Lions in third spot. For Brisbane, a win almost guarantees a top-four finish while keeping their top-two hopes alive.

Unfortunately for the Lions, they have a horrendous recent record at the MCG. They have lost 13 of their last 14 games at the venue, including their only visit this year when facing the 16th-placed Hawthorn Hawks.

Conversely, Melbourne’s form at the ‘G so far this season has been excellent. The Dees have won all but one game, including a victory over the first placed Collingwood Magpies.

With the Demons missing Clayton Oliver and the Lions missing Josh Dunkley, both sides are without key midfielders. Oliver will be especially missed, as he had 37 disposals and a goal when these teams met in round two.

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Melbourne v Brisbane AFL betting strategy

After suffering from poor accuracy in front of goal this season, the Demons seemed to overcome their problems last weekend as they kicked 12.7 to put away the Saints. The same cannot be said for the Lions despite their big margin against the Eagles. Coming in as $1.75 favourites with AFL bookmakers, the Demons should win this one and close the gap on third place.

Since the injury to Clayton Oliver, Demons midfielder Jack Viney has found form in a more advanced role. Averaging 31 disposals a game over the last four weeks, the former captain loves the hard ball in the contest and is a strong two-way runner. Expect Viney to continue his good form on Friday as he collects 25 or more disposals at $1.62 with Marantelli Bet.

Filling in for the injured Josh Dunkley, Brisbane veteran Jarryd Lyons played his first full game for the season last weekend. Finding the football has never been a problem for Lyons, who has averaged over 20 disposals per game for most of his career. With 29 disposals against West Coast while attending the second-most centre bounces of the Brisbane midfielders, we like Lyons to get 25 or more disposals this weekend at $1.73 odds.

Key matchup: Petracca v Neale

Christian Petracca vs Lachie Neale

Leading Melbourne for clearances, Christian Petracca has been their most damaging midfielder while also impacting the scoreboard. Having struggled with accuracy throughout the year, last weekend he kicked four goals straight in a best-on-ground performance. If the Demons win this game, Petracca will be a key part of it.

Brisbane’s Lachie Neale has been at his brilliant best over the last month or so. Leading the AFL for clearances, Neale is an elite player in almost every contested category. Not known for moving the ball quickly or far, the 2020 Brownlow Medal winner backs himself to find a teammate in a better position, doing so at an incredibly effective rate. If the Lions are going to cause an upset, expect Neale to lead from the front.

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