Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers NRL tips & preview | 20/3/25

Storm v Panthers NRL R3 best bets

NRL Round 3: Storm v Panthers betting preview

The NRL world will be watching as the Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers clash in a grand final rematch under the lights of AAMI Park on Thursday night.

While the Panthers claimed ultimate glory in last year’s decider, the Storm have started 2025 in ominous form, dismantling the Eels 56-18 in Round 1 before enjoying a well-timed bye last weekend.

With a fresh squad and home-ground advantage, Craig Bellamy’s men will be desperate for revenge.

The Panthers, on the other hand, are reeling from a shock 38-32 loss to a depleted Roosters side, exposing vulnerabilities rarely seen in Ivan Cleary’s team.

The absence of star fullback Dylan Edwards looms large, with Daine Laurie stepping into the No.1 role.

While Laurie is a capable playmaker, losing Edwards’ organisation at the back could be costly against a Melbourne side renowned for precision, with top rugby league betting sites pricing the Storm as heavy favourites.

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Historically, Melbourne have dominated Penrith at AAMI Park, winning eight of their last nine meetings at the venue.

However, the Panthers have proved resilient in recent years, winning three of their last five clashes overall.

The Storm’s attack, led by Ryan Papenhuyzen, Cameron Munster, and Jahrome Hughes, has been firing early, but their defence will be tested by Nathan Cleary’s ability to control tempo and exploit space.

A key stat to consider is Melbourne’s incredible home record, having won 21 of their last 23 matches at AAMI Park.

The Panthers, meanwhile, have conceded 54 points in their first two games — a stark contrast to their historically rock-solid defence.

Despite this, Penrith’s ability to rebound after a loss is well documented, covering the line in 15 of their last 17 matches following a defeat.

Storm v Panthers Round 3 team news

Melbourne Storm

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Grant Anderson
3. Jack Howarth
4. Nick Meaney
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Stefano Utoikamanu
9. Harry Grant
10. Josh King
11. Shawn Blore
12. Eliesa Katoa
13. Trent Loiero
14. Tyran Wishart
15. Alec MacDonald
16. Tui Kamikamica
17. Lazarus Vaalepu

Melbourne make one enforced change, with Grant Anderson replacing the concussed Will Warbrick on the wing. Nelson Asofa-Solomona is named in the reserves and could be a late inclusion after missing the grand final through suspension.

Penrith Panthers

1. Daine Laurie
2. Casey McLean
3. Izack Tago
4. Paul Alamoti
5. Brian To’o
6. Jack Cole
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Mitch Kenny
10. Lindsay Smith
11. Scott Sorensen
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo
14. Brad Schneider
15. Isaiah Papali’i
16. Liam Henry
17. Luke Garner

Penrith’s biggest loss is Dylan Edwards (groin), replaced by Daine Laurie. Isaiah Papali’i returns to the bench, providing much-needed experience in the forward rotation, while Brad Schneider fills the utility role.

Storm v Panthers Rd 3 betting tips

With the Panthers missing key players and coming off a poor defensive display, Melbourne are primed to cover the 8.5-point line offered at BetOnline. The Storm are 13-1 in their last 14 games when starting as 9.5-point favourites or shorter, while Penrith have failed to cover the line in all three games as 9.5-point underdogs or longer since 2019. Given Melbourne’s dominance at home and their explosive Round 1 form, this looks like another convincing Storm win.

Grant Anderson slots onto the wing for the Storm, taking over from Will Warbrick, who had a dream start to 2025 before being ruled out with concussion. Playing outside Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen, Anderson is in prime position to capitalise on Melbourne’s fluid attacking movements. The Storm have scored 10 or more tries in their last two home games, making Anderson excellent value to get over the line at -102.04 odds with BetOnline.

Historically, Storm vs Panthers matches have been defensive slugfests, with seven of their last nine meetings going under this total. Both sides pride themselves on structure and discipline, and with Penrith looking to tighten up after conceding 38 points last week, expect a cagey, tactical battle where neither side wants to take unnecessary risks. Under 45.5 total points at -111.11 with BetOnline looks likely.

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