Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano UFC 311 betting tips & odds

UFC 311 takes place this Saturday at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, and the main event has seen a dramatic last-minute shift.

Originally slated as a rematch between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, the bout now features Renato Moicano stepping in on just one day’s notice after Tsarukyan withdrew due to a back injury. The stakes remain high as the lightweight title is on the line.

Reigning champ Makhachev has been installed as a red-hot favourite with betting apps to defend his UFC crown, while you can now claim $7.75 for the last-minute call-up Moicano.

Read on for our full fight preview and free betting tips.

Makhachev v Moicano UFC 311 main event preview

Islam Machachev vs Renato Moicano

Islam Makhachev (26-1-0) has dominated the UFC lightweight division since 2022, claiming the belt with a submission win over Charles Oliveira before defending the title with two wins over Alexander Volkanovski and a victory over Dustin Poirier. The 33-year-old still appears to be improving with age and will be confident of securing another successful result against ranked #10 Renato Moicano. He should enjoy a heavy advantage for a man that was training to fight a striker, not a wrestler, with UFC bookmakers placing him a -1111.11 heavy favourite.

Makhachev is an elite wrestler and grappler and fights in a similar manner to his mentor and former long-time UFC champion – Khabib Nurmagomedov. This involves combining powerful strikes with takedowns, ground-and-pound, and submission attempts. The Russian has secured 12 wins via submission since making his professional MMA debut in 2010 including the impressive arm-triangle choke over Oliveira that secured the lightweight silverware.

Renato Moicano (20-5-1) steps up on short notice, bringing a four-fight winning streak and a reputation as a dangerous finisher. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with 10 submission wins, Moicano is no slouch in grappling exchanges but has also developed a solid striking game through his Muay Thai training.

His reach advantage and diverse arsenal of strikes, including hard kicks and uppercuts, could pose challenges for the champion. However, Moicano’s short camp and Makhachev’s pressure may test his cardio and durability over five rounds.

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Makhachev v Moicano UFC 311 predictions

While Moicano is a talented fighter with the ability to create problems for anyone in the division, the short notice and Makhachev’s dominance in every facet of the sport make this a monumental challenge. Expect Moicano to start aggressively, landing a few solid strikes in the early exchanges, but Makhachev will quickly adapt. The champion will secure takedowns, control the fight on the ground, and gradually drain Moicano’s gas tank.

By the third or fourth round, Makhachev will likely find an opening to finish the fight. Whether through a rear-naked choke or ground-and-pound, the champion’s relentless grappling and pace will prove too much for Moicano to overcome. As we have seen in the past, a day’s notice is not enough to come up with a solid plan to defeat Makhachev.

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