Hawthorn v Essendon AFL Rd 1 betting tips | Friday, March 14

Hawthorn v Essendon best bets

Hawthorn v Essendon Round 1 preview – AFL 2025

Hawthorn will be looking to continue their strong start to the 2025 AFL Premiership season when they face Essendon at the MCG this Friday night.

Leading online bookies have the Hawks as clear favourites for this clash at $1.35, while the Bombers are at $3.50. The line is set at 20.5 points.

Hawthorn kicked off their campaign last Friday with a 20-point win over the Swans in Sydney. Midfielder Will Day was a standout with 26 disposals and three goals, while ruckman Lloyd Meek had 30 hitouts, 14 disposals and two goals.

The Hawks boast one of the most exciting young lists in the AFL, while they boosted their defensive stocks in the offseason with size and experience. After an impressive display against Sydney, top AFL bookmakers have installed Hawthorn as early premiership favourites at $7.

On the other hand, Essendon will be hoping to improve on a disappointing 2024 season in which they finished 11th on the AFL ladder after losing six of their last seven games.

There are concerns across the board for the Bombers, whose squad balance — especially in key positions — has come under scrutiny in recent times. At $4 to make the top eight, Essendon will have to exceed expectations this season if they are going to push up the ladder

Hawthorn vs Essendon team news

Hawks midfielder James Worpel suffered an ankle injury against Sydney and could be out for up to four weeks. Josh Ward shapes as the obvious inclusion after being named as an emergency last week.

Sam Mitchell’s decision on whether captain James Sicily plays forward or back will determine Sam Frost’s position after he was the substitute last week. Meanwhile, the Hawks may regain half-back Changkuoth Jiath after he returned through the VFL last weekend.

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Essendon will unveil top 2024 draftee Isaac Kako on Friday night, along with former Brisbane backman Jaxon Prior. Key defender Zach Reid looks set to play just his ninth game at AFL level since being taken at No.10 in the 2020 draft.

The Dons are undermanned in key posts at both ends with forward Peter Wright (ankle) and defender Jayden Laverde (hip) ruled out. Darcy Parish (back), Matt Guelfi (hamstring) and Nik Cox (concussion) are also unavailable.

Hawthorn vs Essendon prediction

After watching the Hawks against Sydney last Friday, it is no surprise to see them as such strong favourites in this clash. They lack height up forward, but the scoreboard impact from midfielders can set them apart. Essendon may struggle to match Hawthorn’s pressure around the ground, so back the Hawks to cover the line of 20.5 points at $1.91 with online bookmakers.

While players such as Will Day, Lloyd Meek and James Sicily grabbed the headlines for Hawthorn last week, Karl Amon finished with a game-high 27 touches and slotted an early contender for goal of the season. A key part of the Hawks’ rapid ball movement, Amon thrives in the uncontested side of the game. He is also on kick-in duties, so back the former Port Adelaide playmaker to continue his strong form with 30 or more disposals at $4.50 with Bet365.

Essendon captain Zach Merrett looks set to be the team’s most important player once again in 2025. He averaged 28.3 disposals per game last season, finding the ball both in the contest and as part of the Bombers’ short-kicking game. Merrett averages over 31 disposals across his last eight games against Hawthorn, so back him to hit that mark again at $2.15 with Neds.

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