Hawthorn v Adelaide R12 prediction & free tips | AFL 2024

Hawthorn v Adelaide betting picks

Hawks v Crows AFL R12 match preview

The Adelaide Crows will be looking to continue their solid run of form on Saturday afternoon as they head to the MCG to face Hawthorn in round 12 of the 2024 AFL season.

Despite playing on the road, the Crows come in as slight favourites at $1.70 at Bet365, while the Hawks are at $2.22 with BoomBet. The line is set at 5.5 points.

Last Sunday, Hawthorn put together a brilliant performance as they beat the Brisbane Lions by 25 points at Marvel Stadium. After kicking eight of the first 10 goals of the match, the Hawks were able to hold off a Lions comeback to secure their fourth win of the season.

Having won three of their last four matches, the Hawks are a much better side than their ladder position of 14th suggests. While they may not push for a finals spot, they are sure to trouble a few contenders this season.

On the injury front, Hawks ruckman Lloyd Meek is in doubt after suffering an ankle injury against the Lions, opening the door for Ned Reeves to return from the VFL. First-round draft pick Nick Watson is also in the frame to return after being managed last week.

Adelaide secured their biggest win of the season in round 11, beating West Coast by 99 points at Adelaide Oval. After kicking the first seven goals of the match, the Crows showed no remorse, winning every quarter and keeping the Eagles to just five goals on the day.

With just one loss in their past five matches, Matthew Nicks’ men are, like Hawthorn, much better than their ladder position suggests. But given they are sitting 10 points outside the top eight, they would need a miracle to push for finals.

Don’t expect many changes for the Crows, as they didn’t suffer any fresh injuries in their dominant win last week.

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Hawthorn v Adelaide betting strategy

After starting the season 0-4, the Crows have claimed four wins and a draw in seven games — including victories over top-eight sides Carlton and Port Adelaide. Although they haven’t won at the MCG since 2017, their experience should be too much for a young Hawks side that is yet to beat anyone in the top 10. While this should be an exciting game, back the Crows to win by less than 40 points at $2.25 with top AFL bookmakers.

With 16 goals in 2024, Dylan Moore has been Hawthorn’s most impactful player on the scoreboard. Playing a hybrid midfield-forward role, the 24-year-old has been kept goalless just once in the past eight weeks. Moore had kicked multiples in four games this year and offers great value at $2.20 to kick two or more goals.

Averaging 30 disposals per game this season, experienced Adelaide midfielder Matt Crouch has turned his career around after managing just seven games in 2023. The 29-year-old has been a picture of consistency, collecting more than 24 touches in every game. With 30 or more disposals in each of the past two weeks, back Crouch to do it once again at $2.15 with the best AFL betting sites.

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