GWS v Brisbane semi-final tips, odds & predictions | AFL 2024

Giants v Lions best bets

GWS v Brisbane AFL semi-final preview

The GWS Giants will be looking to bounce back this Saturday night as they welcome the in-form Brisbane Lions to Sydney in Week 2 of the 2024 AFL Finals Series.

It was a heartbreaking defeat for the Giants last Saturday as they fell to the Sydney Swans by six points at the SCG. Adam Kingsley’s side led at every break but couldn’t hold off the fast-finishing Swans, who kicked six goals in the final term — including the winner with under two minutes to play.

Besides their capitulation in the final term, there were plenty of positives for the Giants. Early inaccuracy meant they couldn’t put the game away, but they were still dominant for large periods, while their tackling pressure was excellent throughout. At home this week, they are slight favourites at $1.75 with Bet365.

Expect just one change for GWS as tagger Toby Bedford returns from a calf injury. Xavier O’Halloran and Toby McMullin are the likely candidates for replacement.

It was a different story for the Lions last Saturday as they comfortably beat Carlton by 28 points at the Gabba. In an incredibly one-sided start, the Lions kicked the first 60 points of the game before taking their foot off the gas in the second half.

While it is understandable for the Lions to ease off with the game in the bag, there remain serious concerns regarding the gulf between their best and worst footy. They also lost both matches against the Giants during the season, so it is no surprise to see them as underdogs for this clash at $2.12 with Unibet.

Brisbane coach Chris Fagan will be sweating on the fitness of key defender Jack Payne after he was subbed out with a knee injury against the Blues. If he doesn’t get up, expect Darragh Joyce to come into the side.

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GWS Giants v Brisbane Lions betting strategy

Despite their loss against the Swans, the Giants still showed plenty of signs that they will get the job done this week. Their pressure was excellent, while their key defenders are capable of nullifying Brisbane’s tall forwards. At $2.20 with top AFL bookmakers, back GWS to win by less than 40 points.

After being tagged against the Swans, expect GWS defender Lachie Whitfield to return to his ball-winning best. The 2024 All-Australian led the AFL in total disposals in the home-and-away season, collecting over 30 touches on 13 occasions. Get on Whitfield to have 30 or more disposals once again at $2.50 with leading Australian bookies.

With multiple goals in each of his last three matches, Brisbane forward Kai Lohmann is in excellent touch. The 21-year-old has 29 majors this season and has become a key part of the Lions’ high-scoring attack. At $2.90 with top AFL betting sites, back Lohmann to continue his good form with two or more goals.

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