GWS Giants v Brisbane Lions AFL tips & best odds – Round 6, 2023

This Saturday afternoon, Manuka Oval plays host to its first AFL game of the season as the Giants take on the Lions. Two teams with inconsistent form, this match is one with potential for an upset.

Last Sunday afternoon, the GWS Giants won a thriller at Norwood Oval against Hawthorn, coming away as two-point winners thanks to a late Harry Himmelberg hanger and subsequent goal from the set shot. In a match where they trailed for large periods of the fourth quarter, this is a win that will have given GWS a big morale boost coming into this weekend.

Since their inception, the Giants have been inundated with first-round talent, which is apparent through their star-studded midfield. Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Tom Green have all attended over 70% of centre bounces in 2023, creating rapid entries into the forward line following a score. Kelly (26.3), Coniglio (29.4) and Green (32.8) are all averaging better than 25 touches per game this season, so they are solid options for the 25 or 30 disposals betting markets.

A lot of doubts surrounded the Giants’ ability to score coming into this season, and so far their performances have done little to silence them. Only passing 100 points once this year, in a round one win over Adelaide, the GWS forward line regularly underwhelms, with a particular reliance upon Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan. That was especially evident against Carlton in round three, where the Giants posted their lowest score of the season (64) as Greene and Hogan were held to 14 disposals combined.

Entering the year, many would have expected the Lions to be one of the top contenders, but their form has been unconvincing to say the least. Last week, they made light work of North Melbourne, winning by 75 points, in a game where Joe Daniher (5.3), Eric Hipwood (4.2) and Charlie Cameron (4.1) combined for 13 goals.

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While Brisbane’s wins over Melbourne and Collingwood at the Gabba have been impressive, their performances away from home have been cause for concern, with losses to Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs being particularly underwhelming. This week shapes as a danger game for the Brisbane Lions, who have top-four aspirations and need to prove that they can be equally imposing away as they are at home.

When the two sides faced each other last year, it was also held in Canberra, as the Lions ran away 40-point winners. This week, much of the same is expected as the Brisbane midfield should overpower the undermanned Giants, who have lost Green due to suspension. Look for the Lions to win this one as favourites at $1.32 with Palmerbet.

Lions livewire Cameron has kicked 10 goals across the last two weeks, and this looks like a perfect opportunity to keep the form going. GWS don’t appear to have a perfect matchup for him, providing Cameron with the ability to use his agility and athleticism to get away from his opponent and kick at least two goals ($1.76).

GWS will be looking to cover Green’s absence through the middle, and the prime candidate for this role is Callan Ward. Averaging 22.2 disposals this season, an increase in attendance at centre bounces will only boost this number as the veteran midfielder looks to fill the contested void. This extra midfield time should see Ward get 25 or more disposals ($2.70).

Key matchup: Sam Taylor v Joe Daniher

Sam Taylor vs Joe Daniher

Last time these two sides met, Brisbane won comfortably, yet Sam Taylor could hold his head high as he held Joe Daniher scoreless on the day.

A first-time All-Australian last year, Taylor is one of the best key defenders in the game and once again shapes up as a real challenge for Daniher. Each week he has played a lockdown role to great effect on players such as Taylor Walker (1 goal), Jack Darling (1 goal) and Harry McKay (0 goals). A player who uses speed, size and strength to his advantage, Taylor challenges a forward to gain space on the lead or outmark him in the contest – areas where he consistently prevails.

Last week, Daniher kicked his biggest score as a Lion, albeit against a pitiful Kangaroos defence. This should be a major boost in confidence for Daniher as he seeks to improve on his 12-goal tally on the year. At his best, he is a mobile forward who uses his size to take the ball at the peak of his leap, with a strong left foot and the ability to kick a goal from anywhere inside 60 metres. However, this is not seen often enough. If the Lions are going to prove to the competition that they are a premiership threat, Daniher needs to be at his ruthless best against the best key defenders in the competition.

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