Gold Coast vs Brisbane AFL R6 tips & value bets – 24/4/2022

At first glance, Sunday’s game at Metricon Stadium looks like a bit of a mismatch as the streaking 4-1 Lions take on the stuttering 2-3 Suns. But these teams might actually be closer than they initially appear. Of course, the match is a derby, so there is a bit of spice involved, and we are expecting a close-fought contest despite the Lions’ ladder dominance.

The Gold Coast Suns have played pretty consistent football across the opening rounds, with their losses coming against Melbourne, St Kilda, and GWS. The loss to the Giants was based on a poor opening quarter, after which the margin remained the same for the remainder of the match. The Suns fought hard against the Dees, and the Saints are flying at 4-1 and playing some of the best footy in the comp. So there is a bit to like about the Suns in 2022.

The Brisbane Lions clung to a tough win against the Pies by a skinny seven points at their most recent outing, and their sole loss after five rounds was away against the Cats, which is never an easy assignment. As referenced in earlier posts, the Lions might be on a stayer’s preparation with plans to peak in September when the finals roll around. Such a long-range strategy means early-season efforts might look a little scratchy, but the goal is to merely accumulate AFL Premiership points and not set the world on fire during this stage of the year.

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Key matchup: Touk Miller vs Lachie Neale

Suns midfielder Touk Miller continues to put up impressive season numbers and will need to be at his very best against the all-star Brisbane line-up. The obvious Lions danger man is Lachie Neale, who routinely tops disposal counts every time he laces on the boots. For fans of in-and-under footy, this midfield battle should be one to savour as Miller and Neale direct their troops, link with ruckmen, and scrap for loose ball at every stoppage.

Gold Coast vs Brisbane AFL betting strategy

The early line for this game has been set at 17.5 points, which offers some appeal as the Suns might just give the Lions a fright. The Suns held the reigning premiers to a mere 13 points in round two. However, we are leaning toward the total score bet, which appears to be set too high. Rain is forecast and humidity is always a factor at Metricon Stadium, so we’re happy to bet on the unders in what promises to be a tough-fought game. So the official tip here is under 165.5 points for the total game score, and if Queensland readers can do a rain dance on Sunday afternoon, that would be most appreciated.

Gold Coast vs Brisbane AFL same-game multi

We’ll link the total points bet with a couple of speculators for the same-game multi enthusiasts. So under 165.5, into Brayden Fiorini 20+ disposals, into Levi Casboult 2+ goals. If the big guy can hit the scoreboard and other stars align, we are looking at $6.04 on Ladbrokes, which will spread smiles from the Gold Coast all the way to the AFL Melbourne heartland.

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