Gold Coast v Melbourne AFL R8 best bets & odds – 6/5/2023

This Saturday afternoon, the Melbourne Demons head up to the Gold Coast to face the Suns in round eight of the 2023 AFL Premiership. With both teams coming off a couple of wins in a row, this game has the potential to be one of the better matches of the weekend.

Travelling down to Marvel Stadium last weekend, the Suns ran out comfortable 24-point winners against Richmond headed by four goals from Ben King. A close game up to half-time, the Tigers’ inaccuracy cost them in the end as a six-goal third quarter from the Suns proved to be the deciding factor.

The form of the Suns this season has been up-and-down, to say the least. After sitting 1-4, a couple of wins on the bounce have given them some form. However, these two wins have come against teams ranked 15th and 16th on the ladder, respectively. This weekend presents as a much tougher challenge against one of the premiership favourites.

Last weekend Melbourne had their easiest win of the season, running out 90-point winners against the Kangaroos at the MCG. The Demons had 12 individual goalkickers on the day, headed by Bailey Fritsch, who continues to be a tough matchup as one of the elite mid-sized forwards in the competition.

Sitting second on the ladder, the Demons are well placed in their pursuit of the premiership. However, one major concern is their travelling form, with their only win away from the MCG this season coming against the 18th-placed West Coast Eagles. Although still early in the year, being a poor travelling team is a tag they will be keen to lose and this weekend shapes as a game they should win.

The ruck battle between these two sides shapes as critical – not only in the middle, but also around the ground. The recruitment of Brodie Grundy to play alongside Max Gawn has given the Demons an elite ruck pairing that few teams can match. Playing a 50/50 ruck-forward rotation, they are able to not only keep fresh while playing in the ruck, but also consistently provide mismatches forward of the ball.

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Opposing them is one of the premier tap ruckmen in the AFL, Jarrod Witts, who averages the fourth-most hitouts in the competition. The Gold Coast Suns captain will be shouldering most of the work on the day, with the only relief coming from Mabior Chol, who has done some pinch-hitting in the ruck over the last few weeks.

In the absence of Touk Miller due to injury, Noah Anderson stood up last weekend for the Suns, gathering 32 disposals and a goal in a best-on-ground performance. The fourth-year midfielder has continued his rise towards elite status, averaging career highs across almost every statistical measure. Since round four he has averaged 31 disposals a game, and in a high-stakes affair against a quality midfield, expect him to continue this form with 25 or more disposals ($1.44).

Fresh off signing a new contract with the Demons during the week, Kysaiah Pickett will be looking to continue on the great form he has shown throughout this season. Despite missing two games due to suspension, he has kicked 12 goals already this season. Pickett uses his great pace and agility to create space between himself and his opponent, and we expect him to kick two or more goals ($1.62).

The forecast suggests a clear evening on the Gold Coast, so expect this clash to be free-flowing. The Demons are the highest-scoring team in the competition, so we are tipping over 165.5 on the total points market ($1.88).

Melbourne have won their last 10 meetings with the Gold Coast, and we expect this game to be no different. The Demons should be too strong for the Suns across all facets of the contest, kicking clear in the last quarter. Back the Demons to win at $1.39 with Marantelli Bet.

Key matchup: King v May

Ben King vs Steven May

After missing the entirety of the 2022 AFL season, Ben King had started this season off slowly; however, last weekend marked a much-needed return to form for the young tall, kicking four goals against the Tigers. This weekend shapes as a much tougher challenge coming up against one of the best key defenders in the competition.

The 2021 and 2022 All-Australian full-back, Steven May has continued on this season in the form that we are all used to, working perfectly in tandem alongside Jake Lever to consistently limit opposition forward lines.

In order for King to effectively impact this game, there is a reliance upon his teammates to hit him on the lead, allowing him to use his speed to create separation from May. If delivery inside 50 is poor, May will be comfortable throughout as he uses his experience to regularly out-position or out-muscle his opponents.

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