Gold Coast v Essendon R12 tips & predictions | AFL 2024

Gold Coast v Essendon Rd 12 picks

Gold Coast vs Essendon AFL match preview

Two sides looking for a finals berth face off on Sunday afternoon as Gold Coast host Essendon in round 12 of the AFL Premiership season.

At home, the Suns enter as slight favourites, while the Bombers offer some value at +125 with Unibet. The line is set at 7.5 points.

Last Saturday, Gold Coast suffered their fifth loss of the season as they went down to Carlton by 29 points at Marvel Stadium. Despite never leading, the Suns kept the game close until a six-goal burst from the Blues in the second half put it out of reach.

A tale of two sides in 2024, the Suns are unbeaten at home and winless on the road. Sitting in 10th spot, top AFL bookmakers have them pegged at +150 to make the top eight.

Just one change is expected for Gold Coast as half-back Sam Flanders returns from illness, with first-year player Jake Rogers making way.

Essendon continued their impressive start to the season last Saturday as they beat Richmond by 12 points at the MCG. In a back-and-forth clash, the Bombers couldn’t shake the resilient Tigers until the final quarter, kicking three of the last four goals.

Unbeaten in their last seven games, Essendon are second on the ladder and cannot from that spot this week. However, with the lowest percentage of the top 13 clubs, AFL betting sites are still giving them decent odds of +150 to make the top four.

Key forward Harrison Jones returns for the Bombers after serving his suspension, leaving Nate Caddy as the omission after making his debut against the Tigers.

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Gold Coast v Essendon R12 predictions

While the Bombers are flying high, three of their past four wins have come against the bottom three sides. The Suns have won their six home games by an average of 45 points, and with an almost complete bill of health, they should do enough to cover the handicap of -7.5 points at -109.89 with top Aussie bookmakers.

Averaging over 32 disposals per game at home this season, Gold Coast’s Noah Anderson looks set to trouble the Essendon midfield. With the Suns pushing for a spot in the top eight, expect a big effort from the 23-year-old, who is known for his performances in important games. Anderson has collected over 30 disposals on five occasions this season and looks a good play to do so again at +150 with Neds.

At the heart of Essendon’s excellent run, skipper Zach Merrett is one of the favourites for the Brownlow Medal at +700. He is averaging over 29 disposals per game this season, including six instances of more than 30. He averages 32 touches over his last four games against the Suns, so back Merrett for 30 or more at +115 with Bet365.

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