Geelong vs Fremantle AFL R7 tips, odds & value bets – 30/4/2022

Are the Cats flat-track bullies? We might find out this Saturday when they host a firing Fremantle side in round seven of the 2022 AFL Premiership.

Geelong are cruising along at 4-2 as per their standard home and away winning record. The Cats were far superior to North Melbourne in round six as expected, winning by 60 points. But we have seen them come up short when hurried by the relentless pressure sides such as the Sydney Swans. We are starting to suspect the Cats may be one of those sides who defeat lower teams by huge margins but struggle when truly pressed by the better squads. The Cats should get a stern test against Freo.

The only knock on Fremantle to date has been the weakness of their vanquished opposition. The Dockers have been blessed with a soft early start to the season but have been quietly taking care of business in impressive fashion. The were far too good for the Blues in round six and recorded a 35-point victory, displaying a range of attacking options and well-drilled defensive structures. They have kicked close to 100 points in three of their victories, and there is a lot to like about the Dockers’ present form. AFL Premiership betting markets remain unimpressed, with the Dockers hovering around the $18 mark despite sitting second on the ladder. A win over the Cats will cause a sharp re-assessment of their 2022 chances.

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Key matchup: Zach Tuohy vs Sam Switkowski

Geelong defender Zach Tuohy was huge against the Kangaroos, scooping 32 possessions – including 23 kicks – and laying three tackles. This kick stat is crucial because it sets up a mark down the field that allows the recipient to either play on quickly or take a minute to assess his options. Defenders who win the ball in the back half and then relieve the pressure with a well-directed kick are worth their weight in gold. Freo forward Sam Switkowski is a likely match-up for Tuohy here. The small forward bobbed up with two goals in round six and continues to impress with his work off the ball. While lacking the height and bulk to crash a pack, Switkowski is agile at ground level, feeding off the work of big men Rory Lobb and Matt Taberner.

Geelong vs Fremantle betting strategy

Geelong at home is always going to be a tough nut to crack, and the Cats are warm favourites here as you might expect. The early line has been set at a tempting 16.5 points. This game will be decided by how long Freo can hang with the Cats and keep applying pressure. The top sides only need a 10-minute window to blow a game wide open, as evidenced by Sydney’s late demolition of the Hawks in Tasmania. So for Freo to remain competitive they will need to relentlessly chase every ball and pressure every possession for the full four quarters. Can they do it? We believe they can, so Fremantle +16.5 points is the official tip here.

Geelong vs Fremantle same-game multi tips

For value-hunters we are going to link Freo +16.5 into the over on the total points line of 155.5. The downside of the total points market is its reliance on goalkicking accuracy, which is difficult to predict. One week the forwards have got their kicking boots on, and the next week they are spraying them all over the park. We are confident that both teams have the attacking options to ensure this is a high-scoring affair and that we get past the 155.5 line. This two leg combo will return $3.75 on Ladbrokes.

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