Geelong v Richmond AFL betting tips & prediction | Round 12, 2024

Geelong v Richmond top picks

Geelong v Richmond match preview

Geelong will be looking to break a four-match losing streak on Saturday night at GMHBA Stadium as they host Richmond in round 12 of the AFL season.

At home, the Cats enter as heavy favourites at $1.07 with Bet365, while the Tigers offer long odds of $8.80 at BoomBet. The handicap is set at 44.5 points, offering some value to anyone backing Richmond to keep the scoreline respectable.

Last Saturday, Geelong’s poor form continued as they fell to the GWS Giants by four points at home. After a taking a 14-point lead into quarter-time, the Cats then conceded eight of the next nine goals to trail by 31 points in the third quarter. Despite a run of five straight majors from that point on, Chris Scott’s men were unable to get the job done.

After starting the season 7-0, there are now major concerns for the Cats, who have fallen down to sixth on the AFL ladder. As one of the five teams stuck on 28 points inside the top eight, this weekend offers a great chance to earn some vital percentage.

Geelong will be without Mark Blicavs and Jhye Clark after they were both suspended, opening the door for ruckman Rhys Stanley to return. Small forward Gary Rohan is also a chance after missing the GWS game.

Richmond suffered their eighth consecutive loss last Saturday night, falling to Essendon by 12 points in the traditional Dreamtime at the ‘G clash. In a back-and-forth affair, the Tigers kept the game close, but inaccuracy was the difference in the final term.

After losing by a combined 210 points in the previous two weeks, the Tigers showed major improvements against the Bombers. Heavily depleted by injury, Adem Yze’s men sit in 17th place on the ladder, with AFL bookmakers giving them odds of $3.50 to finish the season with the most losses.

The Tigers will be missing small forward Shai Bolton after he was concussed against Essendon, while Rhyan Mansell is set to return from his own concussion layoff. Midfielder Jack Graham is also available after a spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

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Geelong v Richmond R12 predictions

Despite losing their past four matches, the Cats should be far too strong for a Tigers side with just one win this season. In 2024, GMHBA Stadium hasn’t quite been a fortress, but in front of their home crowd, Geelong should do enough to cover the handicap of -44.5 points at $1.91 with top online bookmakers.

Surprisingly, in a forward line that contains Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins, 21-year-old Oliver Henry is the Cats’ top-scoring key forward this season. With 21 goals, the former Magpie has been in excellent touch, kicking multiples on seven occasions. After he was kept goalless for the first time in 2024 against the Giants, back Henry to bounce back against the leaky Richmond defence with three or more majors at $2.75 with top betting sites.

Geelong’s Max Holmes is enjoying a career-best year and leads the club for disposals, averaging 25.5 per game. After starting the season on the half-back line, he has returned to the middle in the past two weeks, collecting 32 touches on each occasion. With the Richmond midfield heavily depleted due to injury, back the 21-year-old to continue his good form with 30 or more disposals at $2.15 with top Australian bookies.

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