Geelong v Melbourne AFL tips & goalkicker picks | Round 4, 2025

Geelong vs Melbourne best bets

Cats vs Demons AFL R4 match preview

Round 4 of the 2025 AFL Premiership season continues with Geelong hosting Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium this Friday night.

Both sides come into this clash in poor form, but the Cats remain strong favourites at $1.21 with leading AFL bookmakers. The Demons offer a value selection at $4.50, while the line is at 27.5 points.

Last Saturday, the Cats lost their second consecutive game as they fell to the Lions by nine points. Despite leading by as much as 32 points, Chris Scott’s side kicked just two goals in the second half. Midfielders Max Holmes and Bailey Smith combined for 55 disposals, but overall poor ball use going forward killed their hopes.

Sitting at 1-2, the Cats return to GMHBA Stadium hoping to repeat their Round 1 effort at the venue, where they beat Fremantle by 78 points. Geelong have beaten the Demons in five of their last six meetings at Kardinia Park and should be tough to beat once again.

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Melbourne’s horror start to the season continued last Saturday afternoon with a 58-point loss to the Gold Coast Suns at the MCG. In a one-sided affair, the Demons were never in the contest and were thoroughly beaten in all areas of the game.

This comes after a 59-point loss to North Melbourne the week before, leaving the Demons in 17th on the ladder. With one of the worst attacking records in the AFL, Melbourne are yet to kick over 75 points in a game — something Simon Goodwin’s men will need to improve on.

Geelong vs Melbourne team news – AFL Round 4

Geelong defender Tom Stewart looks set to be available after being a late out last week with a knee injury. Key forward Shannon Neale is expected to be fit as well despite being suffering an ankle injury against the Lions.

Melbourne are set to have plenty of key inclusions with Caleb Windsor, Jake Lever, Kysaiah Pickett and Charlie Spargo all available. Key forwards Matthew Jefferson and Daniel Turner are also in the mix, with rookie Xavier Lindsay the only confirmed change after suffering a knee injury against the Suns.

Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons predictions

Based on what we have seen from the Demons so far, it seems unlikely they will be able to turn their form around on one of the toughest away trips in the AFL. Geelong’s losses have only been by a combined 16 points, while Melbourne have suffered consecutive 10-goal losses against sides who missed the top eight in 2024. At $1.91 with Bet365, back the Cats to cover the line of 27.5 points.

Geelong’s Max Holmes has had a strong start to 2025, making the most of his increased midfield role. The 22-year-old is averaging 24 disposals per game, but more impressively he has found the scoreboard every week, kicking four goals so far. Back Holmes to kick a goal once again at $2.10 with BlondeBet.

After a disappointing 2024, Melbourne midfielder Clayton Oliver has seemingly returned to his best this season. He has collected tallies of 36 and 31 disposals over the last two weeks as a sole shining light in the Demons’ poor performances. Oliver averages more touches against the Cats than any other side, so back him to continue his good form with 30 or more disposals at $2.15 with Unibet.

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