Geelong v GWS tips, odds & multi picks – Round 11, 2023

Geelong v GWS predictions & best bets

Cats v Giants AFL match preview

This Saturday, the Geelong Cats are back at GMHBA Stadium for only the third time this year, as they take on the GWS Giants. Both teams come into the game on losing streaks, Geelong are looking to stay inside the top eight, whilst the 14th placed Giants are looking for positives in an otherwise disappointing season so far.

Last weekend, Geelong made the trip across the country to Perth Stadium where they faced off against the Fremantle Dockers. A back-and-forth tussle throughout, the Dockers kicked away late to ultimately win by 29 points. The score ultimately flattered the Cats, as they were smashed in the disposal count, particularly uncontested. The Dockers toyed with the Cats at times, with the Fremantle midfield proving far too strong in the end. It was also the first time this season where star forward Jeremy Cameron has been kept goalless, proving how important his scoreboard impact is for Geelong to be successful.

Across the season so far, the Cats have been one of the hardest teams to gage in the competition. After three rounds they sat last in the competition, then they proceeded to win five straight games before eventually losing the last two weeks. Now sitting with a record of 5-5 the defending premiers have only beaten one top eight side so far this year, which raises concerns over their premiership credentials this season.

The absence of captain Patrick Dangerfield over the last two weeks due to injury has had a severe impact upon the Geelong performance. The star midfielder has been a clearance machine so far this season with his ability to gather the ball and force it forward being essential role that no one has been able to fill. Injuries to fellow key contest players such as ruckman Rhys Stanleys and midfielders Cameron Guthrie and Mitch Duncan also haven’t helped as the Geelong midfield unit has been forced to adapt with a much more inexperienced line-up.

The GWS Giants last weekend hosted the St Kilda Saints in Sydney in a high scoring end-to-end contest, eventually falling by 12 points. A game with nine lead changes throughout, the Giants were up for the fight against a tough opponent, despite injuries to key players. Throughout the game, GWS seemed to have the advantage in the middle, yet pushing forward it seemed like they wasted their opportunities, with kicks inside 50 regularly ending up in a two on one situation, easily covered by the Saints defence.

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With the Saints defence largely taking care of the GWS tall forwards, it was up to the smalls to hit the scoreboard and in this instance, it was Toby Greene and Brent Daniels. Combining for 40 disposals and four goals, the pair were a constant headache for the Saints defenders as they used their skill and agility to set up teammates or hit the scoreboard themselves. With the injury to Harry Himmelberg, another big performance will be required from these two this weekend if the Giants threaten an upset.

An area of concern that the Giants have faced throughout this season has been their leaky defence, particularly conceding goals from opposition small forwards. The prime candidate to exploit this weakness this weekend is Tyson Stengle. After missing the previous four rounds to injury, Stengle kicked two goals last weekend and should continue this form back at home. His ability to kick goals from the slightest opportunity should be too much for the GWS backline, so expect him to kick two or more goals ($1.65).

After starting off the season slowly, the form of defender Lachie Whitfield has really taken a turn over the past few weeks. Averaging over 30 disposals, Whitfield is back to his damaging best, regularly getting handed off the football as he runs past, he breaks games apart with his accuracy. He is also the primary kick-in option for the Giants, with potential for cheap disposals. In a game where the ball should spend a lot of time in the GWS back-line, Whitfield should see heaps of opportunities to get the football. Look for him to get 30 or more disposals at $2.40 with Marantelli Bet.

Looking at the head-to-head for this game, it is hard to see the Cats losing this one, yet at $1.13 there is minimal value in the selection. As such, we look towards the total points market. GWS have conceded the third highest number of points in the competition this season, whilst Geelong have scored the second most. With additional injuries to defender Nick Haynes and swingman Harry Himmelberg last weekend to go alongside previous injuries to Sam Taylor and Isaac Cumming, the high-powered forward-line of the Cats should be able to put together a solid score. Expect the total points in the game to clear 174.5 ($1.88).

Key matchup: Cameron v Buckley

Jeremy Cameron vs Jack Buckley

Jeremy Cameron has been one of the best players in the competition so far this season and will look to continue this form on Saturday afternoon. Coming off his first goalless game of the season, he will be keen to get back on the scoreboard this weekend. He hurts opposition teams both up the ground and inside fifty as he is particularly quick for his size. If Cameron gets on top of GWS early, it will be a very long afternoon for the defence.

Jack Buckley has been one of the revelations of the season so far for the Giants. The key defender has had a horrid run with injuries over the past few years yet has come back and barely missed a beat. With his counterpart Sam Taylor going down with injury a few weeks ago, Buckley has been forced to step up, taking the premier tall defender each week. He faces his toughest test so far this week against Cameron, where he will be challenged across many aspects of his game.

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