Fremantle vs GWS AFL Rd 4 tips, odds & value bets – 9/4/2022

The bookies are struggling to split Fremantle and the GWS Giants ahead of their clash at Optus Stadium this Saturday in round four of the 2022 AFL season.

Our initial assessment of this game is inconclusive. Freo appear to be progressing in reasonable shape with a close win over Adelaide, a narrow loss to St Kilda, and a belting of the depleted Eagles. Their scoring average has improved from years past when they routinely struggled to hit the kick a decent total, but their form is still obscured and undefined at this point of the season.

GWS are similarly placed in the form stakes with a reasonable loss to the Swans, a big loss to the Tigers, and a workmanlike victory over the Suns, who started the game cold as ice and surrendered an insurmountable early lead.

We are not hugely excited by either team here, and the home ground advantage might prove the decisive factor. GWS do not have a great record on the road, and the trip west will add some extra lead to their saddlebags. The betting market is similarly perplexed, offering almost coin-flip odds based on shared team mediocrity and punter indifference. Betting turnover is always lower for non-Victorian teams with the bulk of wagers emanating from the parochial suburbs of Melbourne.

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Key matchup: Acres vs Coniglio

Blake Acres has been posting some solid numbers for Freo in recent weeks. He’s a tall, solid midfielder who prefers kicking the ball to passing it by hand and does so with high accuracy. Acres was drafter back in 2013 but has missed plenty of footy through injury. Stephen Coniglio had a big game for GWS against the Suns, and in a low scoring game, clean ball use and hitting targets will be paramount.

Fremantle vs GWS betting strategy

We’re taking the home side here by 1-39, showing at around $2.30 with most AFL betting sites. A blowout either way seems most unlikely, as we are expecting a dour, low-scoring struggle. In that vein, if you can’t split these teams, betting under the total game score of 158.5 might offer some appeal. If you are fond of bank interest, you could always back both teams by 1-39 and eke out a small but safe profit providing the game is close. Our official tip is Fremantle by 1-39 based largely on home field advantage.

Fremantle vs GWS same-game multi tips

For those chasing some same game excitement, we’re going to keep this one simple. We’re linking the Dockers 1-39 into Stephen Coniglio to get 25+ disposals. This two-legged gamble will return a respectable $4.24 on Marantelli Bet.

Here’s hoping this game is not as dour as it appears on paper and the Dockers clinch a narrow victory.

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