Fremantle v Brisbane AFL tips, odds & predictions – R21, 2023

Dockers v Lions AFL R23 best bets

Fremantle v Brisbane AFL R23 match preview

In the final match for round 21 of the 2023 AFL season, the Brisbane Lions head across to Perth to take on the Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium.

Last weekend, the Dockers faced the toughest away trip in footy as they headed down to Geelong. After being held goalless in the first term, the Dockers proceeded to win every quarter in a low-scoring match that had 11 lead changes. The Fremantle defence was particularly impressive as they held the Cats to their lowest score at home this season, winning by seven points.

This win keeps the Dockers’ finals chances alive by the slimmest of margins, with an undefeated finish and many other results needing to go their way. Holding no picks in the next draft, Freo have no benefit of finishing lower on the ladder.

The Brisbane Lions headed down to the Gold Coast last weekend and lost to the Suns by 41 points. After leading for most of the first half, the Lions fell away in the second half, conceding 10 goals to three as they lacked competitiveness towards the end.

It was the Lions’ first loss against the Suns since 2018. At a time when there was a chance to move up into the top two, Brisbane will feel they missed a big opportunity.

With no injuries coming out of Fremantle’s game against the Cats, someone will need to make way for key defender Brennan Cox, who is expected to return this week.

Brisbane lost ruckman Oscar McInerney to an ankle injury last weekend, while Keidean Coleman suffered an eye injury and has been ruled out for the trip to Perth. Darcy Fort is expected to take over the ruck role, while Zac Bailey should return from a calf injury.

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Fremantle v Brisbane AFL R23 betting strategy

The Lions’ form away from home has been a major point of concern this season, as they have a record of 3-6 in away games while sitting undefeated at home. For the Fremantle Dockers, their form at home hasn’t been as strong as previous years with a record of 4-5 at Optus Stadium this season.

Despite their troubles on the road, the Lions should bounce back this weekend. Brisbane are the highest-scoring team in the AFL, so Fremantle – 15th in the AFL for points scored – will need to put in an excellent defensive performance to give themselves a chance.

We like the Lions in this one to win comfortably and continue their push towards a top-two spot at $1.51 with Palmerbet.

Leading the competition for marks, Dockers defender Luke Ryan is an excellent defender in the air and also a major part of Fremantle’s uncontested ball movement. Averaging 24.5 disposals a game this season, Ryan is always in the game, regularly playing as a spare defender. We think he shows great value to collect 25 or more disposals at $1.94 with top AFL bookmakers.

After kicking 1.3 last weekend, Brisbane key forward Eric Hipwood will be looking to make amends. Going scoreless only twice this season, Hipwood usually plays as the second tall forward and often finds himself on less experienced defenders. We like him to kick two or more goals this weekend at $1.90 with Palmerbet.

Key matchup: Serong v Neale

Caleb Serong vs Lachie Neale

Leading the Dockers for disposals and clearances, Caleb Serong’s improvement has been one of few positives this season for Freo. The young midfielder thrives in contested situations, regularly getting the ball out quickly and into the forward line. With 24 disposals his lowest count for the season, Serong is incredibly consistent each week.

Kept to just 17 disposals last weekend against the Suns, Brisbane vice-captain Lachie Neale will be looking to bounce back this weekend. With the most clearances in the AFL, Neale is incredibly clean with the ball and an excellent decision-maker under pressure. His ability to find teammates in space is critical to the way Brisbane move the ball forward.

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