Figueiredo v Moreno UFC 283 tips, odds & value bets – 22/1/2023

The undisputed flyweight title is on the line at UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro when perennial rivals Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno meet again this weekend for another epic showdown. With the scoreline locked up, this contest will decide who was the greatest 125-pound fighter of his era.

This is the fourth meeting of these dominant flyweights, with the honours split evenly at a win apiece and a majority draw from their previous encounters. Moreno (20-6-0) boasts the only stoppage from the trio of fights and was arguably unlucky to lose the points decision at the most recent meeting.

Figueiredo (22-2-0) struggled with weight issues prior to being finished in the second matchup, providing some excuse, so it is almost impossible to split these two. The Brazilian has a power advantage, which can be a curse when it comes to making 125 lbs, and Moreno has a height, reach, and technical advantage. Both men can wear a punch, as evidenced by their five-round war in fight three, and the outcome of this bout might be determined by the respective corner and coaching staff and the tactical changes they can employ during the contest.

Figueiredo is six years older than Moreno but has fought four fewer times at the professional level. He also boasts the cleaner record, with one other loss across a storied 10-year career. While both fighters have multiple submission finishes, Figueiredo is a more effective knockout artist with nine KO stoppages to Moreno’s four.

In Moreno’s favour, he still appears to be improving at 29 years of age. On the surface, he looks the deeper thinker of the two and this is demonstrated by his high fight IQ. Moreno was the first UFC champion from Mexico, where he is universally adored, and works as an MMA commentator, analysing fights for a TV audience.

So how did we split these two champions? Bookies have posted coin-flip odds. Figueiredo will have a raucous home crowd on his side, but we are leaning toward Moreno to prevail. The Mexican has the blueprint; he must trouble Figueiredo with a heavy shot, secure the takedown, and lockdown a submission victory to ensure the judges are not required. Fans and can only hope that either fighter finds a finish to avoid the lottery of scorecard roulette.

This should be the final chapter in this never-ending rivalry. At 35 years old Figueiredo must be inching toward the end of the road, and a loss might see him hang up the gloves. Whatever the outcome, these two have provided a lightweight legacy that may never be equalled. They kept the division alive with a series of bouts that delighted the MMA world in every respect.