Essendon vs Richmond AFL Rd 23 best bets & odds – 20/8/2022

With Essendon is disarray, Richmond will be looking to build further momentum when the sides collide at the MCG this Saturday night in the final round of the AFL home-and-away season.

The Bombers have officially entered the ‘failed season recriminations’ phase slightly earlier than expected. After a brief purple patch that included big wins over the Swans, Lions and Suns, they fell into a deep hole with embarrassing losses to the Giants and most recently the Power. There is now talk of coaching replacements and player disenchantment, and we would be most surprised if the Dons are competitive against the Tigers in round 23.

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The Bombers are afflicted with a yawning gap between their best and worst football and have struggled for any type of year-long consistency. They appear a solid team on paper and would have hoped to make the top eight, meaning they are at least five wins short of pre-season expectations.

With a finals berth now safely locked away, Richmond will be keen to keep the ball rolling with another big win here. The Tigers were ruthless against the Hawks in round 22, piling on 20 goals in an imperious display. Richmond will relish the spoiler role in the coming finals campaign, and their opponents will be wary.

Richmond play their best football when they run with ball in hand, causing their opponents to panic and break formation. This opens space for the forwards to lead into and when they are grabbing marks inside 50, the Tigers are almost impossible to contain.

Key matchup: Tom Lynch vs Jayden Laverde

Richmond key forward Tom Lynch was unstoppable against the Hawks, marking overhead, clearing a path for the small forwards like Maurice Rioli, and kicking truly through the big sticks. Lynch has averaged 3.2 goals per game this season at 64% accuracy and would probably be leading the Coleman Medal if he had played every game. He might be warming up to tear the finals to shreds.

Essendon key defender Jayden Laverde will have his work cut out against the firing Tigers forward line. He has been a defensive rock for much of the season and grabbed 20 disposals and 10 marks against the Power. Laverde has averaged 14.4 disposals, 2.0 tackles, and 3.2 spoils this year and will need to be at his defensive best to contain the likes of Lynch.

Essendon vs Richmond betting strategy

Richmond are predictably short here, with the early line set around 23.5 points. The Tigers have beaten the Bombers 12 times in a row, and given the disparity in the current form of the two teams, we are happy to pile on. The Bombers lost their last game by 84 points, and the Tigers won their last outing by 61 points. The 23.5-point line looks like a slam dunk, and we will be confidently investing in this wager. Expect the Tigers to build up a solid early lead and keep pushing until the final siren in a solid tune-up for the finals.

Essendon vs Richmond same game multi tips

For those looking to wring additional value out of this game, we are linking the Richmond -23.5 tip with Dion Prestia 25+ disposals, Tom Lynch 2+ goals, and Jack Riewoldt 2+ goals. This combo will return $5 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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