Essendon v Sydney AFL tips & top odds | Round 23 preview

Sydney v Essendon top betting picks

Sydney v Essendon R23 preview

Essendon will need to regroup when they host Sydney at Marvel Stadium this Friday night to open round 23 of the 2024 AFL season.

The Bombers go in as underdogs, although the line is set at a surprisingly skinny 9.5 points. The total points line of 174.5 predicts a high-scoring affair under the roof.

Essendon suffered another self-inflicted disaster in round 22, squandering multiple opportunities to lose by a single point to the Suns at Marvel Stadium. This continues a 2024 pattern of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Bombers could only manage one goal and nine behinds in the final quarter to practically hand the game to their opponents. They now sit 10th on the AFL ladder and would need a miraculous run of results to scrape into the top eight.

The Bombers will be without winger Nik Cox, who was subbed out against the Suns with concussion. Substitute Ben Hobbs might be lucky to get another chance after contributing little while on the field, and forward Jade Gresham will also face selection pressure after just five disposals. In the VFL, midfielders Archie Perkins and Elijah Tsatas look the most likely to earn promotion.

Sydney played mediocre football for three quarters against the Pies in round 22 to trail by 21 points heading into the final stanza. Then something clicked, the Swans started running the ball with intent, their pressure intensity lifted, and the home team escaped with a fortuitous two-point win.

The Swans hold onto the top position on the ladder, but the chasers are not far behind. Port Adelaide, GWS and Geelong are all within striking distance, just four premiership points adrift. This shapes as a must-win for the Swans, who have dominated the outright betting for most of the season but are not assured of a top-four finish.

Sydney emerged from round 22 without any new injury concerns. Robbie Fox was substituted for tactical reasons in the fourth quarter, while Callum Mills (12 disposals) and Taylor Adams (10 disposals) will need to lift.

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Sydney v Essendon match predictions

It is hard to get too excited about either side given their recent inconsistency. If Sydney can carry the momentum from their final-quarter heroics in round 22, they can dominate the hapless Bombers, but doubt remains. With more to play for and glimmers of their best form on display, take the Swans at the 10.5-point handicap at $1.91 with Bet365.

The total points line looks a little optimistic for what could be a scrappy affair. Both teams have been guilty of turning the ball over and missing scoring opportunities of late, so take under 174.5 total points at $1.90 with BoomBet.

Sydney midfielder James Jordon is often overshadowed by more illustrious teammates, but the 23-year-old can pop up in the forward 50 with a timely contribution. The former Demon found the scoreboard in the win over Collingwood despite an otherwise quiet night, and he offers good value at $2.55 in the anytime goalkicker market at Neds.

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