Essendon v Sydney AFL R20 betting tips – Saturday, July 29

Essendon v Sydney best bets & same game multi

Essendon v Sydney AFL match preview

On Saturday afternoon, the Sydney Swans travel to Marvel Stadium to take on Essendon in a must-win clash for both sides in round 20 of the 2023 AFL season.

The Essendon Bombers hosted the Western Bulldogs last Friday night, going down by 41 points in a forgettable showing. After leading at quarter time, the Dons conceded 12 goals to four in the rest of the match. Particularly concerning were Essendon’s poor efforts in the middle, losing the clearance count 47-26 despite comfortably winning the hitouts.

The loss places the Bombers in 11th spot as they drop outside the top eight for the first time since round 10.

The Sydney Swans headed across to Perth last weekend and defeated the Fremantle Dockers by 29 points. A 25-point quarter-time lead set up the match for the Swans, who never let the Dockers within 20 points after that. Luke Parker led the way for the Swans with 31 disposals, while Lance Franklin and Will Hayward kicked three goals each.

With two wins in a row, the Swans sit 12th on the ladder and still aren’t out of the AFL finals race.

In a huge blow for the Bombers, defender Jordan Ridley will miss the rest of the home-and-away season with a quad injury. After being dropped last weekend, Sam Weideman had 24 disposals and 13 marks playing as a key defender in the VFL and shapes as a replacement option.

The Swans got through last weekend largely unscathed, with Callum Mills and Lance Franklin both expected to play after suffering knocks. Playing without a designated ruckman the last two weeks, the Swans may promote Tom Hickey or Peter Ladhams from the VFL.

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Sydney v Essendon AFL betting strategy

Games between these sides are usually very close, with six of their last seven meetings decided by 10 points or fewer. On form, however, one team has a clear edge this time.

While the Swans come in off two tough wins, the Bombers have lost four of their last five. Boasting a full-strength side after their injury problems earlier in the season, the Swans are rightful favourites at $1.72 with Bet365.

Kicking six goals in his last two weeks, Tom Papley leads the scoring charts for Sydney this year and looks a threat whenever the ball hits the deck inside 50. At $1.88 with AFL bookmakers, he offers great value to kick two or more this weekend.

Averaging 31.4 disposals a game, Darcy Parish is one of the most prolific ball-winners in the competition. As the top centre-clearance player coming up against one of the worst clearance-differential teams in the AFL, the Essendon midfielder looks a good bet to collect 30 or more disposals at $1.86 with Palmerbet.

Bombers v Swans key matchup: Martin v Gulden

Nic Martin vs Errol Gulden

Essendon’s Nic Martin is one of the tallest wingmen in the AFL, using his height to take marks all over the ground. A great user of the ball, the 22-year-old prioritises finding an open teammate rather than attempting to take the riskier option. He also likes to hit the scoreboard, averaging just under a goal a game to provide another option going forward.

Errol Gulden has been the Swans’ most important player this year, playing roles all around the ground. The 21-year-old loves to get the game moving forward and is sought-out by teammates, who trust his excellent distribution. Number one for disposals at the Swans, he also averages almost a goal a game by taking his chances running through 50.

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