Essendon v Richmond AFL tips & best odds – Dreamtime 2023

This weekend sees the Essendon Bombers face the Richmond Tigers in the AFL’s annual Dreamtime at the ‘G match. Two teams in opposing form, this shapes as one of the games of the round.

After starting the season 4-1, the Bombers have had a tough month of footy and now sit in 10th position after four consecutive losses. Although disappointing, in the last five weeks they have faced every team in the top four as well as last year’s premiers, Geelong.

Last weekend, Essendon fell to Brisbane by 42 points thanks to a six-goal haul from Brisbane key forward Joe Daniher. The Bombers started off the game strongly, leading by 10 points at halftime, but fell away in the second half, giving up 10 goals while only kicking two themselves.

An injury to tall forward Peter Wright on the cusp on the season had pundits wondering where Essendon’s goals would come from. Instead, many of the problems for the Bombers have come at the other end of the ground. Over the last four weeks, the Dons have conceded on average over 100 points per game — too many for a team with finals aspirations.

After an extremely poor start to the season, last Friday night was an incredibly impressive win for the Richmond Tigers, who took down Geelong by 24 points. They led from start to finish and never looked like losing, showing signs of a Richmond side that has had so much recent success. After starting the season 1-5-1, many doubts were cast over Richmond’s season; now, having won two games in a row, they are a danger side few teams want to face.

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Last Friday’s win was great for a variety of reasons, but one that stands out was the return to form for Dustin Martin. The star Richmond midfielder was a constant headache for the Cats defence and ended up being the difference between the two sides, kicking four goals alongside 19 disposals. In the continued absence of key forward Tom Lynch, performances like these are going to be essential if the Tigers are to make a finals run.

A key battle looms in the midfield this weekend. Due to injuries, Essendon will be without both Darcy Parish and Will Setterfield, who have been key pieces so far this season. These absences mean there will be increased pressure on Essendon captain Zach Merrett to stand up in the middle. The Bombers will have ascendency in the ruck as Sam Draper faces the inexperienced Samson Ryan, meaning Merrett should largely have first access to the footy. As such, Merrett for 30 or more disposals at $1.85 with BetOnline looks a solid play.

On clear night in Melbourne, expect this game to be a high-scoring affair. Richmond have scored over 100 points in the last two weeks, while Essendon have maintained their scoring rates despite conceding plenty. In six of Essendon’s nine games this season the over on the total points market has hit, and expect it to hit again this Saturday as the line sits at 170.5 ($1.88).

Determining a winner due to past matches between these two sides shows a clear favourite. Richmond have won their last 13 matchups against the Bombers and come into this weekend as favourites again. The midfield injuries should prove too much for Essendon to overcome as the Tigers continue on their recent winning ways at $1.62 with the top online bookmakers.

Key matchup: Redman v Rioli

Mason Redman vs Daniel Rioli

In last week’s loss to the Lions, Mason Redman was one of few standout players for the Bombers, leading the game for metres gained as he gathered 30 disposals. He is an extremely consistent performer off the half-back line as he uses his carry and his penetrating right boot to pick apart opposition sides. For Essendon to be a chance this weekend, a big performance will be needed from Redman.

Daniel Rioli has been one of Richmond’s top performers this season, using his pace around the ground to break games open. Last weekend he was one of Richmond’s best, with 23 disposals and a goal. Look for Rioli to be a massive influence on this game at both ends of the ground.

Essendon v Richmond prediction – Dreamtime at the ‘G 2023

Essendon v Richmond AFL same game multi tips – Rd 10, 2023

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