Cowboys keep crazy NRL scenario alive with win over Storm

North Queensland Cowboys have kept their faint hopes of making the NRL’s top four alive in 2024 with a 38-30 defeat of a depleted Melbourne Storm side on Thursday night in Townsville.

The Storm were without 11 regular members of their squad, with the side having already locked up the NRL minor premiership and looking to rest up ahead of the finals.

Still, the Storm made life tough for the Cowboys, with the home side only pulling away in the final quarter of the match.

The victory means that mathematically, North Queensland can still finish as high as second on the NRL ladder – but there are some outrageous scenarios that would have to unfold for that to happen.

How the Cowboys can make the top four

Bookmaker PlayUp has the Cowboys at $201 to make the top four, but just $1.001 to miss out on the cut.

These dramatic NRL betting odds are because the side sits in sixth place on 34 points, with a points difference of +51.

Next above them are the Bulldogs, also on 34 points with a points difference of +146 and a game in hand.

The three teams occupying spots two through four all have a game in hand as well, sit on 36 points, and have points differentials in excess of 150.

For the Cowboys to make the top four, three things would need to happen:

1. Bulldogs lose to Sea Eagles
2. Cowboys defeat Bulldogs by 50 points
3. Panthers lose to the Rabbitohs and Titans by an average of 29 points each

If this unfolds, the Cowboys would sneak into fourth place by on points differential, by one point.

The far more likely scenario is that the Panthers win their remaining two matches, while the Sharks and Roosters win at least one more as well.

This would see both the Bulldogs and Cowboys miss out on the top four – which is what NRL bookmakers are expecting.

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