Covington v Buckley preview & free tips | UFC Tampa main event

Colby Covington returns to the octagon against the surging Joaquin Buckley to headline UFC Fight Night at the Amalie Arena in Tampa this Sunday (AEDT). Covington is a contentious figure within MMA circles but should enjoy strong home-state support, although leading online bookies have him priced at big odds to overcome a rejuvenated opponent. Read on for our full fight preview and free betting strategy.

Colby Covington v Joaquin Buckley fight preview

Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley

Colby Covington (17-4-0) has not fought since producing a lacklustre effort when trying to wrest the UFC welterweight title from Leon Edwards in December 2023. The 36-year-old has lacked motivation in recent years, with two wins and two losses since 2020. He has slid down the welterweight rankings and must score an upset win in Tampa to remain relevant in a stacked division.

Covington is a highly decorated wrestler who wears down opponents with relentless forward motion. Judges have historically rewarded this approach, and nine of his professional wins have come via the scorecards. His ground game is elite — particularly in top position, where he can be hard to shake loose.

Joaquin Buckley (21-4-0) has appeared a new man since moving up to 170 pounds, rattling off five straight victories — including an impressive knockout win over Stephen Thompson just two months ago. The 30-year-old is a heavy striker with 14 professional wins via knockout. He covers distance well and presents constant danger in the stand-up portion of his bouts.

Buckley was a wrestler in his high school days, but given his striking prowess, he is less inclined to engage in grappling exchanges. His heavily muscled physique presents a challenge to hold down, but that may prove a liability if this bout enters the latter rounds and his cardio endurance is tested. We can expect him to come out head-hunting from the opening bell.

Colby Covington v Joaquin Buckley fight predictions

Punters are siding heavily with Buckley to prevail over an aging Covington. The underdog has consistently fought higher-ranked opponents, including four title shots in his last seven appearances. If fully fit and motivated, Covington has the skills to produce the upset in Florida.

Buckley tends to overload his punches, which may open takedown opportunities. If Covington can play it smart on the feet and break even in the early rounds, his superior endurance may prove decisive. Buckley via knockout is the obvious selection, but Covington to win is irresistible at great odds with top UFC betting sites.

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