Collingwood v Richmond AFL Rd 3 best bets – March 31, 2023

It’s an MCG blockbuster on Friday night as old rivals Collingwood and Richmond go toe-to-toe for the first time in the 2023 AFL season. Both teams come into this game after dispatching South Australia’s pride-and-joys, with Collingwood completely obliterating Port Adelaide, and Richmond holding off a spirited Adelaide side.

The ladder may read that Collingwood are fourth, but don’t be fooled, as they are well and truly the best side to start the AFL season. After a number of close finishes in 2022, AFL critics pondered whether the Pies’ luck was set to run out. Craig McRae and his team responded by knocking off last year’s premiers, a strong side in Port Adelaide, and now set their sights on another top-eight fancy in Richmond.

How have they done this? Another year under the gameplan of McRae definitely helps, and the inclusions of Bobby Hill and Dan McStay offer more attacking options, but it’s their counter-attack from the half-back line that makes them so good. Led by the Daicos boys, the Pies have been able to shut out forward-50 entries and explode with skill and precision through the middle of the ground, leaving their forwards licking their lips with space in their own 50. Look for the Pies to take advantage of Richmond’s consistently poor inside-50 entries and an oversized forward line, justifying their favourite price at $1.56 with BetOnline.

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Richmond aren’t on a decline from their premiership successes a few years ago (just ask them). Through the off-season they traded away their future for the present-day elite with Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper. The Tigers are still in their teething stage with this lineup, and they got a pretty convincing win against Adelaide last week, but the Crows piled on a five-goal term against them.

The Tigers’ tall forward lineup really stood against a small Adelaide defence, but they will have their work cut out for them against Collingwood. They should be able to get forward entries, but over the first two rounds, they haven’t looked too advantageous. This is compounded with a Pies captain in close to career-best defensive form in Darcy Moore, so expect the ball to hit grass a lot for the Tigers forwards.

If this is the case, it is Richmond’s small brigade who will have to be on their game offensively and defensively if they are to get the win. The Tigers’ trump card in this area is Shai Bolton – a player who, when at his best, can be one of the best in the competition. If Bolton is at his best on Friday night, look for him to live up to the big stage and score at least two goals for the Tigers ($2.08).

It is sure to be a capacity crowd at the MCG, giving this game an early finals-like atmosphere. However, rain is forecasted in Melbourne right through to Friday night, which will slow the speed of the game and allow for more contested play. Given the conditions, it is hard to see the score going over 180.5 total points, so the under at $1.88 is the play.

Key matchup: Nick Daicos v Trent Cotchin

Nick Daicos vs Trent Cotchin

Chris Judd won his first Brownlow Medal in just three years of being in the competition, but Nick Daicos could do it in just his second year – that’s how good the kid is. He sets up so many of Collingwood’s scores from the back half, accumulates possession at will, and even drifts up forward to score himself.

Richmond coach Damien Hardwick knows all of this, so he may employ a tagger to nullify the Pies’ young gun – and who better to take on the job than former captain Trent Cotchin? Cotchin’s midfield minutes are being reduced, especially with the new midfield inclusions, allowing him to play more across half-forward. He loves to score, but he loves to win more, and Cotchin will know that stopping Daicos on the counter-attack will give his side a good chance to get that win.

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