Collingwood v Melbourne betting tips & odds – AFL Finals 2023

Collingwood v Melbourne QF betting predictions

Collingwood v Melbourne QF match preview

Kicking off the 2023 AFL finals series, the Collingwood Magpies face off against the Melbourne Demons in the first qualifying final at the MCG on Thursday night.

After suffering a late-season form slump, the Magpies showed they are still the team to beat in round 24 as they downed the Essendon Bombers by 70 points. Collingwood did all the damage early, kicking the first 11 goals to kill off the game before half-time. As has been the case all season, the Magpies attacking avenues come from all parts of the ground, with 11 different players hitting the scoreboard.

This win secured the minor premiership for the Magpies, who have now earned two home finals. With experience playing in front of big crowds all season, they should be unfazed by the sell-out crowd expected on Thursday night.

READ: AFL FINALS WEEK 1 PREVIEW & MATCH ODDS

The Demons had an excellent finish to their season, beating the Sydney Swans by 21 points at the SCG. A close first half resulted in the lead swapping hands many times before the Swans were able to generate a 17-point margin late in the third quarter. However, the Demons came home strong to kick the last six goals, with Bayley Fritsch booting five for the game in an excellent return from injury.

Finishing the season in fourth position, the Demons are arguably the most in-form side of the top four, winning seven of their last eight matches.

The injury news for the Magpies is mixed this week, as Brownlow Medal favourite Nick Daicos was ruled out as he continues to battle with a knee injury. However, in a major boost, key defenders Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy are expected to return to the side.

Melbourne forward Jake Melksham was ruled out for the season after suffering a knee injury against the Swans, which may open the door for Tom McDonald to return to the side after playing well in the VFL.

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Collingwood v Melbourne QF betting strategy

Having won the matchup between these two sides earlier in the season, the Demons will be optimistic that they can once again knock over the top-placed side. A staple of their form over the last month has been their defensive pressure, keeping their opponents to just 61 points per game.

On the other hand, the Magpies have been one of the most prolific attacking sides in the AFL this season, with their rapid ball movement and high pressure regularly creating opportunities out of nothing. Collingwood have been the best team all year, so it’s hard to look past them at value odds of $1.85 with Ladbrokes.

A big-game player, Clayton Oliver looks set to launch into another big finals campaign for the Demons. Returning from injury in round 22, Oliver has looked comfortable but hasn’t been at his best over the last few weeks. Working alongside ruckman Max Gawn, look for Oliver to get first look at the ball in the contest as he racks up 30 or more disposals at $1.75 with top AFL bookmakers.

Finishing the season in excellent form, small forward Jamie Elliott has been the number one target inside 50 for the Magpies. A versatile player, Elliott is an excellent target on the lead and can finish from all angles. He has scored multiple goals in all but one game since round 15, and we’re backing him to continue his good form with two or more goals at $1.75 this Thursday night.

Key matchup: De Goey v Petracca

Jordan De Goey vs Christian Petracca

The most explosive player in the Magpies midfield, Jordan De Goey only needs the slightest of opportunities to showcase his skillset. After being a forward for much of his career, De Goey has attended more centre bounces than anyone else for Collingwood this season. But he will still be looking for the opportunity to break inside 50 and have a shot at goal.

Named in the All-Australian side last week, Christian Petracca has had another excellent season for the Demons. Playing in a hybrid midfield-forward role, Petracca is incredibly damaging at both, averaging 1.2 goals a game while also being one of the top contested ball winners in the AFL. If the Dees are to win this, they will need a big performance from Petracca.

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