Collingwood v Geelong AFL tips, odds & predictions – R22, 2023

Collingwood v Geelong AFL R22 best bets

Collingwood Magpies v Geelong Cats AFL R22 match preview

Kicking off round 22 of the 2023 AFL season, the Geelong Cats head to the MCG to face the first-placed Collingwood Magpies.

The Magpies faced the Hawthorn Hawks at the MCG last weekend, falling by 32 points in their most disappointing performance of the season. Held goalless in the first quarter, the margin extended throughout the day and the Magpies never looked like staging a comeback. Adding to the disappointment, the Magpies lost Nick Daicos (knee), Tom Mitchell (quad) and Nathan Murphy (ankle) to injury during the game.

Missing a chance to secure the minor premiership, the Magpies still sit two games clear at the top of the ladder. A win this weekend will almost secure a top-two finish.

The Geelong Cats hosted the Port Adelaide Power last weekend at GMHBA Stadium, saluting by 12 points in a must-win clash. The lead swapped multiple times, with the Power holding the advantage early in the fourth quarter. However, the Cats bounced back, kicking four of the last five goals to keep their season alive.

Sitting in ninth place on the ladder, Geelong just have to keep on winning if they are going to make the finals.

With the large injury toll from the weekend, the Collingwood Magpies held back key defender Billy Frampton from the VFL match on Sunday in order to ensure he would be available this Friday night. Oleg Markov was the sub on Saturday but is expected to return to the starting side.

For Geelong, Jack Henry was subbed off in the third quarter with a foot concern. However, the Cats may be boosted by the return of Tom Hawkins, who is a chance to return from a minor hamstring injury suffered in round 19.

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Collingwod v Geelong AFL R22 betting strategy

With two losses in a row, the Magpies are showing weaknesses for the first time this season. Before he got injured on the weekend, Nick Daicos was kept extremely quiet by the Hawks. Without his impact, Collingwood looked much less threatening, and with Tom Mitchell also in doubt, there are concerns about the strength of their midfield.

Luckily for the Pies, Geelong have struggled in the middle this year. Although impressive in their win last weekend, the Cats came up against a Port Adelaide side with six outs, four of them being late changes. Still the top team in the AFL, we are backing in the Magpies in this one as $1.70 favourites with PlayUp.

With Collingwood’s big outs, look for Jordan De Goey to take responsibility in the middle. The Magpies’ most damaging midfielder, he is averaging 24 disposals a game this season and is central to Collingwood’s rapid ball movement. We like him for 25 or more disposals at $1.90 with top AFL bookmakers.

With three goals last weekend and 19 goals across his last six weeks, Jamie Elliott is one of the in-form goalscorers in the AFL. The Collingwood forward plays both tall and small, making him difficult to match up on. He is also known for kicking true when the Pies need him most, so we like Elliott to boot two or more goals in this match at $1.68.

Key matchup: Darcy Moore v Jeremy Cameron

Darcy Moore vs Jeremy Cameron

One of the best intercepting players in the AFL, Darcy Moore has been a rock at the back throughout this season for the Magpies. The Collingwood captain is an exceptional on-on-one defender but also knows when to come off his man to impact a contest – something that will be essential in the absence of Nathan Murphy.

After starting the year in red-hot form, Jeremy Cameron’s output has waned as the campaign has progressed. The Geelong star has not kicked more than three goals in a game since round six, while his disposal average has also dropped off somewhat. Known for working up the ground, expect Cameron to drag Moore outside the defensive 50 to create one-on-one situations inside 50 for his teammates.

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