Collingwood v Carlton tips & predictions | AFL Round 4 preview

Collingwood vs Carlton best bets

Collingwood vs Carlton match preview

Collingwood and Carlton continue their storied rivalry this Thursday night at the MCG as they kick off Round 4 of the 2025 AFL Premiership season.

The Magpies enter this clash as favourites at $1.48 with leading online bookies. The Blues are at $2.70, while the line is set at 12.5 points.

Collingwood hold a 2-1 record after consecutive wins against Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs heading into their bye last weekend.

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With a game built on defence, the Magpies have conceded just 57 points per game over their last two outings. Nick Daicos continues to lead the side through the middle with an average of 28.7 disposals per game, while key forward Brody Mihocek averages 2.5 goals per game.

Meanwhile, the Blues have had a horror start to the season, as they sit 0-3 following their eight-point loss to the Western Bulldogs last Friday night. Despite leading at every change, the Blues faded late, kicking just four goals in the second half.

Poor second-half performances have been a trend for the Baggers this season, with a cumulative score of -89 points after half-time. Under incredible pressure, Michael Voss will need to address this concern if the Blues are going to improve this season.

Collingwood vs Carlton team news

Collingwood are set to make at least one change after key defender Reef McInnes ruptured his ACL against the Bulldogs. Billy Frampton and Charlie Dean are the most likely inclusions down back, while Mihocek is a chance to return from a back injury.

Carlton small forward Zac Williams has seemingly avoided a major Achilles injury after being subbed off last Friday and will be a test for this week. Meanwhile, key forward Harry McKay’s status is unknown after missing last week due to personal reasons.

Collingwood vs Carlton prediction

After such a poor start to the season, it is hard to see the Blues turning their form around against one of the AFL’s top teams. Collingwood have won both of their games at the MCG, while they have beaten Carlton in 10 of their last 12 meetings. Although the Blues have plenty of quality in their lineup, their second-half struggles make the Magpies deserving favourites.

Following his underwhelming debut season for the Pies in 2024, small forward Lachie Schultz has had a stellar start to 2025. The former Docker has arguably played his two best games forCollingwood in consecutive weeks, with a particularly impressive 17 disposals and two goals against the Bulldogs. Facing a Carlton side that struggles against opposition small forwards, back Schultz to continue his good form with two or more goals at $2.90 with major AFL bookmakers.

For Carlton, a clear positive has been the performances of ruckman Tom De Koning. Averaging 25 disposals and 33 hitouts per game, the 25-year-old has emerged as one of the top rucks in the AFL. At $2.65 with [rm_geo_top-casino rank=8], back De Koning to collect 25 disposals once again.

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