Collingwood Magpies v GWS Giants AFL preview & odds | 14/5/23

Round 9 of the 2023 AFL Premiership culminates at the MCG in the twilight hours on Sunday as the Collingwood Magpies look to make it two from two against NSW as they come up against the GWS Giants. The Pies did what was needed to gain victory against the Swans last week, while the Giants enter this match having come up short against rivals the Bulldogs in Canberra.

The Collingwood Magpies have been such an interesting beast this year, they might be the best team in the competition, but at times almost love to tease their opponents with the scent of victory. The reason they are able to run over the top of teams when a loss is imminent, is that they are the fittest team on the park at any given time. It’s not intentional that their games always end up the same way, but it’s almost like a game you know you are good at, so you allow your opposition every chance to win just to challenge yourself with a comeback.

The Giants are almost the opposite, they are seemingly always in the contest, edging ever so close to that victory but rarely have the power to take it. So many of their losses, particularly against top teams, have come from three goals and less. It’s due to this aspect that it’s hard to gauge where their team is at, even after eight rounds of footy.

Collingwood come into this game hot favourites, primarily for the fact that they have a stronger mentality against the GWS Giants and are really the much better team. The Giants will also be sweating on the fitness of their best player Toby Greene, who picked up an ankle injury late in the game against Sydney a fortnight ago. This game is likely to play out like you’d expect: both teams to go neck and neck right up to three quarter time, then the Pies to absolutely obliterate the Giants in the last. Pies to win ($1.15).

It hasn’t been all bad for the Giants, as mentioned before they have been incredibly competitive in most of their matches, so something must be going reasonably well. Their youth coming together is one of those positives that bodes pretty well for the Giants future, this led by young midfield bull Tom Green. This kid doesn’t sweat the contact of the game, and like Nick Daicos on the other team, he can have a significant bearing on how his team will fare.

Averaging over 30 disposals a game and six clearances, Green is a player that the Giants have given licence to do as he pleases in the middle. He is powerful over the footy, accumulates at will, and propels his team forward with regularity. This week will be a tough one, as Green comes up against the Pies’ powerful mids. But the young Giant will relish the challenge and he will be well backed up by his more experienced teammates. Look for Green to have an impact and rack up another 30 disposals ($1.44).

If Toby Greene doesn’t get up for the match, then it will be interesting to see where the Giants will get their goals from. Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy have been excellent on all opposition talls for the Pies, and their small defenders have been all over the small forwards. The opposition won’t stop the Giants from firing it in there regardless, and it’s most likely that their smalls will get to work. Brent Daniels is a player that boasts electric speed when the ball hits the deck, goal sense, and is that right height to draw free kicks. The Pies defenders have been known to be reckless and Daniels might be able to use this to his advantage. You can expect the little Giant to have a few shots, if accurate he can kick at least 2 goals ($3.10).

Key matchup: Nick Daicos vs Harry Perryman

Nick Daicos vs Harry Perryman

Nick Daicos is a freak, every week there is some publication coming to this conclusion and that is because the evidence is overwhelming. He is skillful, a ball magnet, and you could argue that he is the Pies’ main match winner. However, in recent weeks teams have decided to do the most painfully obvious thing: tag the kid.

It’s really the only way you can give yourself a fighting chance against the Pies, as Daicos is their prime ball mover off half back, setting up the majority of their play. The Giants could look to any of their players to take on the job, but Harry perryman may be the player who is best suited. Perryman is no slouch, he has half back and inside middle experience, a ruthless competitor, and possibly the most defensive minded of their midfielder/back men combinations. If he can tag Daicos and restrict his influence on the game, then he would be setting Giants up with a chance on Sunday.

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