Carlton v Western Bulldogs AFL R9 betting tips – May 13, 2023

Saturday night sees the Carlton Blues take on the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium as two sides with AFL finals hopes for 2023 face off in what could be the match of the round.

Following an extremely promising start to the season where they sat undefeated through four rounds, the Blues have now won just one game since, against the 18th-placed Eagles. A team with as much quality on their list as they have should be contending for the top four spots, but Carlton instead sit in eighth spot on the ladder.

Last weekend was another disappointing effort from the Blues as they went down by 26 points to the Brisbane Lions. The first half of the game appeared promising, as Carlton headed into the main break only down 10 points. However, Brisbane’s five goals to nil in the third quarter left the Blues down by 40 at the last break and the game was over.

A key factor in any Carlton win this season is the performances of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. However, last week against the Lions they were well held by Harris Andrews and Jack Payne, kicking only a goal each and showcasing how much the Blues rely on their scoreboard impact. For Carlton to show they can be a premiership contender this season, they’ll need to find goals from other avenues, not just from their Coleman Medal-winning pair.

On the other hand, the form of the Western Bulldogs this season has been trending up and they are beginning to show signs of the team that made the grand final only two seasons ago. After starting the season with two losses, since then the Dogs have won five out of their last six games to make their way into the top eight.

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Last weekend they travelled up to Canberra to face the GWS Giants in a game that posed a tough challenge. After a tight opening half, the Bulldogs widened the gap in the third quarter, kicking four goals to nil to take a 33-point lead into the final term. A late comeback from the Giants threatened to make it a close finish, but the Bulldogs saw off the charge and ran out 15-point winners.

There are similarities between the Blues and Bulldogs in their game style and team structure. Both these sides are known for their midfield strength and the quality of their tall forwards, and those are the areas where this game will be won and lost.

On form, the Bulldogs come into this as slight favourites — and rightly so, as their ball movement and variety of scoring options has proven too strong for the opposition in recent weeks. If Carlton are going to win this game, they will be relying on a game-winning performance from one of their key forwards. Expect the Bulldogs to be too strong in this one, establishing their top-eight credentials while giving Carlton more to think about on their current form slump ($1.90).

When looking for impact players for the Bulldogs, it is hard to go past their main target up forward. Kicking three goals last week and 10 in his last three games, Aaron Naughton has been a handful for opposition defenders due to the variety of ways in which he scores. Look for Naughton to get plenty of opportunities and kick two or more goals at $1.34.

Although Carlton are in a slump, the form of Adam Cerra has been a positive. Over the last three weeks he has averaged 34 disposals a game while also kicking a goal. Look for him to continue this form on the weekend, with 25 or more disposals at $1.48.

Key matchup: Cripps v Bontempelli

Patrick Cripps vs Marcus Bontempelli

This weekend’s game gives the spectator one of the great head-to-head battles in our sport between two of the best big-bodied midfielders in the competition.

Patrick Cripps has continued where he left off this season, continuing to enforce himself upon every contest and generate clearances. However, the 2022 Brownlow Medal winner has struggled to impact the scoreboard so far this season, with only one goal to his name.

Marcus Bontempelli has also been enjoying another great season in a stacked Bulldogs midfield. The four-time All-Australian leads the competition for clearances while also kicking five goals for the year, creating an impact on games that is hard to match. If the Blues were able to limit the impact of one player this weekend, Bontempelli would be that player.

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