Broncos v Dragons NRL Rd 3 tips, odds & value bets – 18/3/2023

Super Saturday NRL action wraps up in Brisbane with the Broncos hosting the St George Illawarra Dragons at Suncorp Stadium.

The last time these two sides met, the Broncos were eliminated from the top eight in a disappointing display for the club. However, the clash before that, the Broncos beat the Dragons comfortably at Suncorp. Will history repeat?

This Brisbane Broncos side is vastly different to the one that was beaten in Kogarah in 2022, with Reece Walsh, Herbie Farnworth, Ezra Mam, Jordan Riki, Cory Paix and Martin Taupau strengthening the starting 17. The Dragons have made changes, although it is hard to argue their side has improved, despite beating the Titans in round one this season.

In 44 clashes the Broncos have won 24 times, including their most recent home win over the Dragons in dominant fashion. The Broncos side has improved through both on-field talent and their defensive efforts to start the season. Having beaten the Panthers and Cowboys to start the season, the Broncos should be capable of putting together a big team performance to put the NRL notice, so we like the 13+ margin at $2.03 with Marantelli Bet.

The injury to Broncos winger Corey Oates will change the attacking structures of the home side dramatically. However, it will not come to the detriment of the side, with Kotoni Staggs and Selwyn Cobbo expected to be targets for halfback Adam Reynolds. Lining up against the much smaller Mathew Feagai, Cobbo should be given ample opportunity to score in one-on-one scenarios on the ground or in the air, so he looks a good chance for two or more tries ($3.70).

Hot, dry conditions have been predicted for Brisbane over the weekend, which should see the Suncorp Stadium surface at its fast, point-scoring best. Along with Cobbo and Staggs, the Broncos have Walsh, Mam, Farnworth and even Kurt Capewell who are all capable of finding the in-goal area. The Dragons have also showed they are capable of scoring points this season. Look for this to be a high-scoring match that exceeds 42.5 total points ($1.90).

Key matchup: Reece Walsh v Tyrell Sloan

The battle of the fullbacks could be the highlight of the night. It could also be match-defining depending on the performance of Tyrell Sloan. The Dragons young gun is yet to establish himself as a first-grade fullback and, coming up against Walsh, there may be a clear class gap between the two. Walsh’s Broncos debut was absolutely electric, setting up tries, scoring tries, breaking tackles and making life a nightmare for the Cowboys defence. If Walsh puts in a similar performance Saturday, Sloan could be in for a long night.

Broncos v Dragons NRL Rd 3 betting prediction

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