Brisbane v Carlton AFL betting tips & predictions | Finals Week 1

Brisbane v Carlton best bets

Brisbane v Carlton AFL finals preview

The Brisbane Lions will be looking to silence some doubters when they host Carlton at the Gabba this Saturday night to wrap up the first week of the 2024 AFL finals.

While the Lions have won 10 out of their last 12 matches, that includes two losses in their last three outings. Still, Chris Fagan’s men have the second-best defensive record in the AFL this season, while they have also averaged over 100 points per game since the bye.

Once major concern for Brisbane is their 3-5 record against the other top-eight sides this season, with losses at the Gabba to GWS, Geelong and Carlton. Nevertheless, online bookmakers have them slated as $1.28 favourites for this clash.

Besides the four players missing with ACL injuries, the Lions are at full strength this weekend. Jack Payne and Brandon Starcevich return in defence, with Darragh Joyce and Harry Sharp making way.

The Blues had a much tougher time making the finals, barely scraping into eighth despite a strong first half of the year. Carlton lost six of their last eight matches, with their only wins coming against wooden-spoon contenders West Coast and North Melbourne.

On form, it is no surprise that Carlton are $3.85 outsiders with Bet365. Injuries have played a huge part in their slump, however, and they are set to regain a stack of starters this week.

Veteran Sam Docherty headlines the inclusions for Carlton as he makes a miraculous return from an ACL injury suffered in round one. Key-position trio Mitch McGovern, Harry McKay and Tom De Koning all return from injury, alongside midfielder Adam Cerra and small forward Zac Williams.

Alex Cincotta, Jack Carroll, Ashton Moir, Jaxon Binns and Cooper Lord have all been omitted, while small forward Matthew Owies misses through suspension. Two-time Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow will also miss, as he hasn’t recovered from an ankle injury, while Jack Martin has failed to recover from a hamstring problem.

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Brisbane v Carlton match predictions

As the in-form side playing at the Gabba, it is hard to look past the Lions in this clash. Their inaccuracy has been their only clear problem since the bye, but their defence has been able to cover on most occasions. With the Blues in such poor form, back the Lions to cover the handicap of 23.5 points at $1.91 with major AFL bookmakers.

Since returning to the side in round 15, Brisbane midfielder Will Ashcroft has been a key part of the Lions’ excellent form to close out the season. The second-year player has taken his game to another level of late, averaging over 28 touches per game over the last three rounds. Expect a big performance from Ashcroft in his first final, collecting 25 or more disposals at $2.15 with top online bookies.

Another player who has finished the season in excellent form is Carlton defender Nic Newman. Over the last four weeks he averages over 30 disposals per game, and he now takes more kick-ins than any other teammate. At $2.15 with leading Australian betting sites, Newman offers great value for 25 or more touches.

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