Brandon Moreno v Steve Erceg UFC betting tips & free preview

Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno will face recent title challenger Steve Erceg to headline a Latin American-flavoured UFC Fight Night at the Arena CDMX in Mexico City this Saturday night. Punters are leaning into Moreno given his huge hometown support and experience advantage, but Erceg went perilously close to securing the belt under similarly hostile conditions in 2024.

Read on for a full fight breakdown and free UFC betting suggestion.

Moreno v Erceg UFC Fight Night main event preview

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg

Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) won the UFC flyweight title three times between 2020 and 2023 during a legendary rivalry with Deiveson Figueiredo that spanned four epic fights. The Mexican appeared diminished at the end of his reign and MMA pundits thought he may be heading towards the end of a long and storied career. Moreno proved he was far from a spent force at his most recent UFC outing when too slick and polished for Amir Albazi across five rounds of one-sided dominance. That bounce-back win was enough to signal a return to form and the Mexican is priced as a shortening favourite with leading UFC bookies heading into this contest.

Moreno is a well-rounded athlete who combines ringcraft and footwork with elite striking and a dangerous ground game. He has never been stopped on the feet or mat, with all eight professional losses coming via the scorecard. Moreno will ultimately be remembered as one of the greatest flyweights to ever compete, but he still possesses the hunger to hunt new challenges. While the belt is held by current champ Alexandre Pantoja, who has beaten Moreno twice, the Mexican will need to play a gatekeeping role at 125 pounds.

Steve Erceg (12-3-0) entered hostile territory when challenging for the flyweight strap about 10 months ago, losing a close decision result to champion Pantoja. The Australian was sent a short-priced favourite with top betting apps at his next appearance but was knocked out cold by Kai Kara-France in a round-one wipeout. The 29-year-old must now regroup and rediscover the confidence that saw him compile a 10-fight win streak before the narrow loss in Rio.

The question mark following his recent knockout is whether Erceg is tough enough to stand with the best featherweights. He boasts the technical skills to compete but may lack the physical hardness to trade shots with tested warriors like Moreno. We can only hope the Aussie has worked to sure up his defence since the most recent loss, but the odds appear stacked against him in Mexico and a victory would represent a major betting upset.

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Moreno v Erceg UFC Fight Night predictions

This looks like a straightforward matchup for Moreno. He is unlikely to be stopped inside the distance and it would take a brave judging panel to rule against the local hero should the fight go the distance. Moreno likes to hurt opponents on the feet before following up with choke attempts on the mat, so the end could come either via knockout or submission. Given the nature of Erceg’s recent loss, we are tipping Moreno to score the KO in front of adoring fans.

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