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Best odds, form & free tips for UFC Fight Night, Maia vs. Condit

UFC Fight Night Vancouver is upon us this Saturday night (Sunday morning AEST) and it’s shaping to be one hell of an event.

We will have a look at the top three fights:

Main Event: Maia vs. Condit

Damein Maia is riding high off the back of five straight wins and will be looking to make it six straight when he meets Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit this weekend.

Condit is back after what some people have referred to as the fight of the year in January. There were rumours he was considering retirement after his narrow loss to Robbie Lawler earlier in the year. His return to the octagon shows that Condit has something to prove to us all. He will be a real danger.

Maia will be looking to take the fight to the canvas while Condit’s striking prowess leads you to believe he’ll be trying to keep the fight upright at all times. But when you look at the stats you learn to see that Condit is no slouch when it comes to the wrestle, grapple and submission himself. Sure Maia has won 48 per cent of his fights through submission, but Condit has won 43 per cent through submission too.

This just goes to show both fighters are comparable on the canvas, but Condit’s striking game is far more superior.

Prediction has this fight pretty close to even pegging, with Maia given $1.97 and Condit on $1.83.

Both men have generally even records, with Maia’s history at 23-6-0 and Condit’s history at 30-9-0.

But I think with Condit back with a point to prove after his narrow loss to Lawler earlier this year. That matched with his superior striking and takedown ability makes Condit the standout for me. Sure Maia has a string of wins behind him, but sometime constantly winning can breed a little complacency.

Tip: At $1.83 @, Condit is good value.

Co-Main Event: Pettis vs Oliveira

Once upon a time Anthony Pettis was the UFC lightweight champion, since then Pettis’ career trajectory has fallen like a stone recently. In an effort to revitalise things, Pettis has dropped a weight class. This bout against Charles Oliveira represents Pettis’ first featherweight fight.

Oliveira on the other hand is the sixth ranked featherweight fighter in the UFC with a fight record of 21-5-0.

62 per cent of those wins have come through submission. This makes sense when you realise Oliveira is a jiu-jitsu master.

Oliveira also has five wins from his last six go’s in the octagon, so he has a bit of momentum on his side going in to this fight.

Prediction see’s this match up with Pettis at $1.57 and Oliveira $2.40. Going on face value this looks about right, but if the fight falls to the floor for any reason than you have to think Oliveira has the upper hand as the jiu-jitsu, floor guru.

Despite this I think Pettis has the power and skill to dominate at the featherweight level.

Tip: Pettis should make short work of Oliveira at $1.57.

Rawlings vs Van Zant

Aussie, Bec Rawlings, will be looking to crack into the top 15 ranked women’s strawweight with a win over the number 10-ranked Paige Van Zant in this bout.

Rawlings has a professional history of 7-4-0, while Van Zant’s professional record is 6-2-0.

Going on their history, the only way for Rawlings to win is to cripple Van Zant with a submission, KO or TKO. Half of Van Zant’s fights have gone to decision, which shows she has the stamina and staying power to whether a storm.

Prediction see’s the fight with Van Zant as the favourite on $1.48 and Rawlings the under dog on $2.60.

I think maybe there is a bit of value in Rawlings. She is coming off the back of two UFC Fight Night wins. If Rawlings can get in quick with a submission or KO, then the fight is hers.

Tip: Get on Rawlings as the underdog at $2.60